| MATCHUP | Ottawa Senators | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 9-6 | 7-4 |
| Spread | +1.5 -218 | -1.5 180 |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (102) |
| Where | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY | |
| When | Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Senators vs Sabres Prediction
Buffalo comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak and they have allowed two goals or fewer in two of those three wins. The Sabres are 3-3-0 at home this year, while the Senators are 4-4-1 on the road. Ottawa has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 16 goals in those three losses. The Senators have really struggled without Ullmark in net and Buffalo is hot, so give me the Sabres to win here.
Ottawa Senators Betting Preview
The Ottawa Senators are 9-6-1 this season after they lost to the Ducks by a score of 6-3 in their last game. Ottawa led 3-0 after the first period, but they allowed three goals in the second and three more in the third for the ugly loss. The Senators were out shot by a total of 33-23, won 56.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Ottawa was led by Claude Giroux, who had one goal and one assist, while Jake Sanderson added two assists. Jonas Johansson stopped 27 out of 33 shots in the loss.
Prior to that game, Ottawa defeated the Sharks by a score of 5-1, but lost to the Kings by a score of 6-5 before that. The Senators have scored 3.13 goals per game and they have allowed 3.19 goals against per game, while also going 12.5% on the power play and 72.9% on the penalty kill this season. Tim Stutzle has led the team with nine goals and 12 assists, while Drake Batherson has added nine goals and nine assists. Samuel Ersson is 1-3-1 with a 3.78 goals against average and an .866 save percentage this season.
Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview
The Buffalo Sabres are 7-4-3 this year after they defeated the Kings by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Buffalo blew a 2-0 lead in the game, but they scored with about seven minutes left in the third to get the win. The Sabres out shot LA by a total of 31-29, won 35.8% of the face-offs, and went 2-3 on the power play in the game. Buffalo was led by Tage Thompson, who had two goals, while Jack Quinn added one goal and one assist. UPL stopped 27 out of 29 shots in the game, which was a .931 save percentage.
Prior to that win, Buffalo defeated the Ducks by a score of 7-6 and the Sharks by a score of 2-0. The Sabres have scored 3.07 goals per game and they have allowed 3.43 goals against per game, while also going 17.0% on the power play and 68.6% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led the team with 10 goals and seven assists, while Jack Quinn has added eight goals and six assists. Colten Ellis is 3-1-0 with a 3.11 goals against average and an .880 save percentage this year.
Why the Buffalo Sabres will win
- The Sabres have won six of their last seven home games against the Senators.
- The Senators have lost five of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last nine games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Sabres have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games against the Senators.
- The Senators have lost the third period in each of their last seven Wednesday road games.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the last eight games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Each of the Senators’ last four road games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the Sabres’ last four night games at KeyBank Center have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last 12 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts
- Jack Quinn has scored a goal in three of the Sabres’ last four games.
- Mattias Samuelsson has recorded at least one assist in six of the Sabres’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- Owen Power ranks 4th in the league for average time on ice (26:39) this season.
Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts
- Shane Pinto has scored a goal in three of the Senators’ last four games.
- Tim Stutzle has recorded an assist in each of the Senators’ last five road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- Shane Pinto ranks T1st in the Eastern Conference for shootout goals (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Buffalo Sabres rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (0).
- The Buffalo Sabres have recorded the most wins when trailing after Period 2 this season (3).
- The Ottawa Senators are the only team to lose a game when leading by 3 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
- The Ottawa Senators rank 31st in the league for Period 2 goals allowed per game this season (1.44).
Positive Trends
After looking at the trends, I am staying with my Sabres prediction in this game. Buffalo has dominated the Senators at home in recent years and they have played well against Ottawa in general. The Senators have not played well when they are at a rest disadvantage and they have played very poorly in the second period so far this season. I don’t trust the Ottawa goalie situation, so I will back the Buffalo Sabres to win on home ice in this matchup.