Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction 2/28/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, February 28th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators are 28-22-8 this season after they lost to Detroit in overtime by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Ottawa led 1-0 after the first period, but they allowed the tying goal in the second and ended up with the overtime loss. The Senators out shot Detroit by a total of 27-20, won 61.5% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Ottawa got their lone goal from Tkachuk, while Ullmark stopped 18 out of 20 shots, which was a .900 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Ottawa defeated the Flyers by a score of 2-1, but lost to the Hurricanes by a score of 4-3 before that. The Senators have won five of their last seven games and they are currently sixth in the Atlantic standings with 64 points. Ottawa has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 3.21 goals against per game, while also going 23.4% on the power play and 72.8% on the penalty kill this season. Tim Stutzle has led Ottawa with 28 goals and 34 assists, while Drake Batherson has added 19 goals and 30 assists. The projected starting goalie for Ottawa is Linus Ullmark, who is 16-8-6 with a 2.83 goals against average and an .884 save percentage this season. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 27-23-9 this year after they lost to Florida by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Toronto cut the deficit to 3-1 early in the third period, but they allowed the last two goals for the blowout loss. The Maple Leafs were out shot by a total of 37-30, won 44.2% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Toronto got their lone goal from Tavares, while Woll stopped 32 out of 35 shots, which was a .914 save percentage.

Prior to that game, Toronto lost to the Lightning by a score of 4-2, but did beat the Oilers by a score of 5-2 before that. The Maple Leafs have lost eight of their last 11 games and they are currently last in the Atlantic standings with 63 points. Toronto has scored 3.22 goals per game and they have allowed 3.42 goals against per game, while also going 19.6% on the power play and 83.8% on the penalty kill this season. William Nylander has led Toronto with 18 goals and 36 assists, while Auston Matthews has added 26 goals and 24 assists. The projected starting goalie for Toronto is Joseph Woll, who is 13-8-4 with a 2.92 goals against average and a .910 save percentage this year. 

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Senators have lost each of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Senators.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Senators.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have lost the third period in each of their last four games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last five games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The road team has won nine of the Maple Leafs’ last 12 games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in eight of their last 10 road games against the Maple Leafs.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the first period in four of their last five home games.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Senators’ last seven games as road favorites against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last seven Saturday games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last nine night games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six home games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• John Tavares has scored a goal in five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games as underdogs.
• Auston Matthews has recorded at least one assist in six of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Tim Stutzle has scored at least one goal in eight of the Senators’ last nine road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Fabian Zetterlund has recorded an assist in each of the Senators’ last four road games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction 

Toronto comes into this matchup after two ugly losses following the Olympic break and they continue to be one of the worst teams in the East. The Maple Leafs are 16-9-6 at home this year, while the Senators are 14-12-3 on the road. Ottawa has lost two of their last three games, but they did play pretty well against Detroit in their last game. I don’t know what to think about this Toronto team, as they have been a huge disappointment, but I don’t really trust Ottawa to score enough goals. Take the Leafs at home here.

David Racey's Pick: Maple Leafs ML