Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction 5/16/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Sabres vs Canadiens prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, May 16th at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL playoff matchup.

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are down 2-3 in this series after they lost three of the first five games by scores of 4-2, 1-5, 2-6, 3-2, and 3-6. In game five, Buffalo led 3-2 after the first period, but they failed to score in the last 40 minutes for the loss. The Sabres recorded 36 shots on goal, won 44.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got goals from Doan, Helenius, and Zucker, while UPL stopped 18 out of 23 shots, which was a .783 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Buffalo defeated the Bruins in six games by scores of 4-3, 2-4, 3-1, 6-1, 1-2, and 4-1. The Sabres have lost four of their last seven games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 109 points. Buffalo scored 3.45 goals per game and they allowed 2.93 goals against per game, while also going 19.5% on the power play and 81.9% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led the Sabres with four goals and seven assists, while Josh Doan has added three goals and seven assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Alex Lyon, who is 4-3 with a 2.25 goals against average and a .917 save percentage this postseason. 

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are up 3-2 in this series after they won game five by a score of 6-3 on Thursday night. Montreal trailed 3-2 after the first period, but they scored three times in the second and once in the third for the win. The Canadiens recorded 26 shots on goal, won 55.9% of the face-offs, and went 2-2 on the power play in the game. Montreal got goals from Anderson, Caufield, Demidov, Evans, Suzuki, and Texier, while Dobes stopped 33 out of 36 shots, which was a .917 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Montreal defeated the Lightning in seven games by scores of 4-3, 2-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, 0-1, and 2-1. The Canadiens have won four of their last six games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 106 points. Montreal scored 3.40 goals per game and they allowed 3.06 goals against per game, while also going 23.1% on the power play and 78.2% on the penalty kill this season. Nick Suzuki has led the Canadiens with four goals and eight assists, while Lane Hutson has added two goals and 10 assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 7-5 with a 2.28 goals against average and a .914 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won five of their last six playoff series closeout games.
• The Sabres have lost three of their last four games.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 12 games.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Sabres have lost the second period in five of their last six games as underdogs at Bell Centre when tied after the first period.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won five of their last six games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 20 of the Canadiens’ last 22 games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Canadiens have lost the third period in five of their last six games as favorites following a road win.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the Canadiens’ last 11 night games against Atlantic Division opponents at Bell Centre have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Four of the Sabres’ last five road games against the Canadiens following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last six games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last 11 Saturday games.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Cole Caufield has scored a goal in six of the Canadiens’ last seven games as favorites against the Sabres.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last seven Saturday games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (51) this season.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Zach Benson has scored a goal in three of the Sabres’ last four road playoff games.
• Tage Thompson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last four road games.
• Zach Benson has scored three goals against the Canadiens this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only two teams to win 30+ games when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season.
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).
• The Buffalo Sabres are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Buffalo Sabres rank T2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (11).

Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction 

Montreal comes into this matchup after a comeback win in game five and they are looking to advance to the next round. The Canadiens were 24-15-2 at home this year, while the Sabres were 24-13-4 on the road. Buffalo has allowed five goals or more in three of their last four games, but they did win their last road game by a score of 3-2 in game four. The Canadiens have controlled a good portion of this series, but I think Buffalo is more than capable of winning this game, so I like the Sabres and the plus money here.

David Racey's Pick: Sabres ML