Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 3/25/25 NHL Picks

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet on Tuesday in NHL action from the Amalie Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.

Matchup History

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won both meetings so far this season, and both meetings were in Pittsburgh. The first win came on November 19th, 2024, in OT, by a final score of 3-2 before a 5-2 win on January 12th, 2025. The wins made it three wins in the last four head-to-head meetings for the Lightning in this head-to-head matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Recap

The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-3 shootout loss at the hands of the Florida Panthers last time out to sit at 29-32-11 on the year. After this game, the Penguins will head to Buffalo to take on the Sabres.

Penguins Looking For Some Consistency Down The Stretch

Evgeni Malkin has 43 points with 13 goals and 30 assists, while Sidney Crosby has a team-high 78 points of his own with 25 goals and 53 assists. Rickard Rakell has 62 points with 32 goals and 30 assists, and Erik Karlsson has 50 points with 10 goals and 40 assists. Bryan Rust also has 54 points with 25 goals and 29 assists. In goal for the Penguins, Joel Blomqvist has gone 4-9-1 with a 3.81 GAA and an .885 save percentage, while Tristan Jarry has gone 12-9-5 with a 3.12 GAA and an .895 save percentage this season. Alex Nedeljkovic is also 13-14-5 with a 3.16 GAA and an .893 save percentage on the year.

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Penguins have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last six games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three games.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Rickard Rakell has scored at least one goal in four of the Penguins’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Bryan Rust has recorded at least one assist in each of the Penguins’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one point in each of his last 10 appearances against the Lightning.
• Bryan Rust has recorded four blocks against the Lightning this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights last time out to slip to 40-25-5 on the year. After this game, the Lightning will welcome the Utah Hockey Club to town.

Lightning Drop Back-To-Back Games

Nikita Kucherov leads the Bolts with 98 points, including a team-high 30 goals and 68 assists, while Brandon Hagel has 77 points with 32 goals and 45 assists, and Anthony Cirelli has 50 points of his own with 24 goals and 26 assists. Brayden Point has 68 points with 34 goals and 34 assists, while Victor Hedman has 54 points with 42 assists. Jake Guentzel also has 67 points with 34 goals and 33 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 33-19-3 with a 2.25 GAA and a .920 save percentage, while Jonas Johansson has gone 7-5-2 with a 3.12 GAA and an .896 save percentage on the year in goal for Tampa Bay.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last eight night games at Amalie Arena.
• The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The home team has covered the puck line in each of the Lightning’s last four games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Oliver Bjorkstrand has scored the first goal in three of his last four home appearances against the Penguins.
• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last five games as home favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Brayden Point has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine home appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last eight Tuesday games against Metropolitan Division opponents at Amalie Arena.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (20) this season.

Total Goals Facts

• Eleven of the Lightning’s last 12 games against the Penguins following a road loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Nine of the Penguins’ last 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’m going to take a shot on Pittsburgh here. The Lightning are the better team and are at home where they’ve played their better hockey all season long, but Pittsburgh’s had a history of success in Tampa Bay, and the Penguins are running out of opportunities to save their season and to get enough wins to sneak into the playoffs. Pittsburgh still has a talented lineup and I think that at this price, given the history and what’s on the line for the Penguins, Pittsburgh shows up here. Give me the Penguins.