Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 12/4/2025 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Dec 1, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) controls the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers in the second period at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Records
13-7-5
16-8-2
Spread
+1.5 -148
-1.5 124
Moneyline
+170
-205
Total
Over 6.5 (114)
Under 6.5 (-135)
Where
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
When
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Time
07:00 PM EST
TV
ESPN+
The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
Pittsburgh Penguins Recap
The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game looking to build on their 5-1 win over Philadelphia last time out to sit at 13-7-5 this season. After this game, Pittsburgh will head on the road for a game against Dallas.
Penguins Win 3 Of Last 4
Sidney Crosby leads Pittsburgh in scoring with 29 points including a team-high 18 goals and 11 assists while Evgeni Malkin has 26 points with 6 goals and a team-high 20 assists. Justin Brazeau has 12 points with 6 goals and 6 assists and Anthony Mantha has 15 points with 8 goals and 7 assists. Erik Karlsson has 16 assists while Bryan Rust has 21 points with 8 goals and 13 assists. Arturs Silovs has gone 4-4-4 with a 3.00 GAA and an .898 save percentage in goal for the Penguins so far this season while Tristan Jarry is 8-2 with a 2.57 GAA and a .911 save percentage this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at the hands of the Islanders last time out to sit at 16-8-2 this season. After this game, the Lightning will square off with the Islanders in a rematch at home.
Lightning Have 7-Game Win Streak Snapped
Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 32 points including 11 goals and 21 assists while Brandon Hagel has 27 points with 15 goals and 12 assists and Jake Guentzel has 27 points with 14 goals and 13 assists. Victor Hedman has 12 assists and Anthony Cirelli has 17 points with 9 goals and 8 assists. Brayden Point’s also added 11 points with 3 goals and 8 assists and Darren Raddysh has 17 points with 9 goals and 8 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 11-6-2 with a 2.31 GAA and a .917 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 5-2 with a 2.91 GAA and an .895 save percentage this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: December 4, 2025
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine road games following a road win.
The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games.
The Lightning have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three games following a road win.
The home team has won the first period in each of the last seven games between the Penguins and Lightning.
Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win
The underdogs have won five of the Penguins’ last six games.
The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six Thursday games as favorites.
The road team has won the third period in each of the last six games between the Penguins and Lightning.
Total Goals Facts
Twelve of the Lightning’s last 13 games against the Penguins following a road loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
Each of the Penguins’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 14 home games against the Penguins.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 19 of the Penguins’ last 20 night games at Benchmark International Arena.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
Anthony Cirelli has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances against the Penguins.
Oliver Bjorkstrand has recorded a point in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Penguins.
Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Lightning’s last nine games against the Penguins.
Nikita Kucherov is the only player in the league to have recorded 2+ points in five or more consecutive appearances this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts
Sidney Crosby has scored the first goal in three of the Penguins’ last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
Sidney Crosby has scored at least one goal in four of the Penguins’ last five games.
Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one point in each of his last 11 appearances against the Lightning.
Rickard Rakell has recorded an assist in each of his last seven Thursday appearances.
Sidney Crosby ranks 1st amongst qualified players for shooting percentage (29.0%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 1st in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (89.16%).
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.58).
The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 1st in the league in power play percentage this season (33.33%).
The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (84.93%).
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
I’m on the Lightning here. I think the Lightning are just the better team in better form despite their loss to the Islanders on Tuesday, and the Bolts are just in one of those grooves where the losses are few and far between over a one or two month stretch. The Penguins have still been a hard team for me to get a read on, and I trust Tampa Bay fully at home. I’ll roll with the Lightning here.
