Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 10/5/2026 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Apr 26, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) plays with a puck during warm-up before the game against the Montreal Canadiens in game four of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Philadelphia Flyers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Records
0-1-2
1-1-0
Spread
+1.5 -135
-1.5 114
Moneyline
+180
-218
Total
Over 5.5 (-122)
Under 5.5 (102)
Where
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
When
Monday, October 5, 2026
Time
07:00 PM EDT
TV
NHL Net
The Philadelphia Flyers and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Monday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
Philadelphia Flyers Recap
The Philadelphia Flyers come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-2 OT loss at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes last time out to sit at 0-1-2 this season. After this game, the Flyers will head on the road for a game against the Ottawa Senators.
Flyers Drop First 3 Games Of Season
Travis Sanheim and Travis Konecny share the team lead for the Philadelphia Flyers through three games this season with 2 points each, with Sanheim posting a goal and an assist while Konecny has recorded a team-high 2 assists. Sean Couturier, Christian Dvorak, and Trevor Zegras have each provided an assist for 1 point, while Rasmus Ristolainen, Matvei Michkov, and Owen Tippett have each scored a goal to complete Philadelphia’s scoring. In net, Joseph Woll has logged an 0-0-2 record with a 2.87 GAA and a .929 save percentage after stopping 78 of 84 shots, while Dan Vladar has registered an 0-1-0 record with a 7.04 GAA and an .816 save percentage with 31 saves on 38 shots for the Flyers up to this point in the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over Washington last time out to improve to 1-1 on the year. After this game, the Lightning will head home for a game against the Minnesota Wild.
Lightning Pick Up First W Of Season
Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Hagel share the team lead for the Tampa Bay Lightning through two games this season with 2 points each, with Kucherov and Guentzel posting a goal and an assist while Hagel leads the squad with 2 assists. John Carlson, Emil Lilleberg, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brayden Point have each added an assist for 1 point, while Conor Geekie and Charle-Edouard D’Astous have each scored a goal to complete Tampa Bay’s scoring. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has recorded a 1-1-0 record with a 2.59 GAA and an .889 save percentage after stopping 40 of 45 shots for the Lightning up to this point in the season.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: October 5, 2026
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
The Flyers have lost each of their last seven games.
The Lightning have won 14 of their last 16 games against the Flyers following a win.
The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against the Flyers.
The Flyers have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games at Benchmark International Arena.
The Lightning have won the second period in eight of their last nine home games when trailing after the first period.
Why the Philadelphia Flyers will win
The Lightning have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
The Flyers have won 13 of their last 19 games as road underdogs.
The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The underdogs have covered the puck line in 12 of the Lightning’s last 13 games.
The Lightning have lost the first period in four of their last five games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
Total Goals Facts
Each of the Flyers’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Each of the Lightning’s last six games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Nine of the last 10 Monday night games between two teams from the Eastern Conference have gone UNDER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in 12 of the Lightning’s last 13 night games at Benchmark International Arena against opponents on a losing streak.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Flyers’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in four of his last five appearances against the Flyers.
Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Flyers at Benchmark International Arena.
Nikita Kucherov ranked T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) last season.
Philadelphia Flyers Player Prop Facts
Porter Martone has scored a goal in each of the Flyers’ last three games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Porter Martone has recorded an assist in each of the Flyers’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Tampa Bay Lightning ranked 3rd in the league for goals against per game last season (2.79).
The Tampa Bay Lightning ranked 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (82.56%).
The Philadelphia Flyers ranked 32nd in the league in power play percentage last season (15.74%).
The Philadelphia Flyers have recorded the equal-longest road winning streak (8 games) in the NHL last season.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
I’m on the Lightning in this one. I get the allure of a plus price with the Flyers who have been competitive this season, but I’m just not high on this Flyers team the way I was last season amidst their run to the playoffs. The Lightning are a better team than what they put out in the opener and showed that in game two against a solid Capitals team and being at home in this one I think they get it done once again. Give me the Bolts.
