Panthers vs Lightning Prediction 4/30/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Panthers vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Wednesday, April 30th at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Florida Panthers Betting Preview

The Florida Panthers are up 3-1 in this series after they won game four by a score of 4-2 in their last game. Florida trailed 2-1 late in the third period, but they scored three goals in the final four minutes for the win. The Panthers recorded 23 shots on goal, won 48.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Florida got goals from Lundell, Verhaeghe, Ekblad, and Jones, while Bobrovsky stopped 18 out of 20 shots in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Panthers won games one and two by scores of 6-2 and 2-0, but did lose game three by a score of 5-1. Florida has split their last six games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 98 points. Florida has scored 3.00 goals per game and they have allowed 2.72 goals against per game, while also going 23.5% on the power play and 80.7% on the penalty kill this season. Matthew Tkachuk has led Florida with three goals, one assist, and six shots on goal, while Barkov, Reinhart, and Bennett also have four points in the series. Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-1-0 with a 2.01 goals against average and a .902 save percentage this postseason. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are facing elimination in this game after they fell apart late in the third period in game four. Tampa Bay led 2-1 with under four minutes remaining in the game, but they allowed back to back goals in just 11 seconds and allowed an empty net goal about two minutes later in the loss. The Lightning recorded 20 shots on goal, won 51.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Chaffee and Cernak, while Vasilevskiy stopped 19 out of 22 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Lightning lost to the Rangers by a score of 4-0, but did beat the Panthers by a score of 5-1 before that. Tampa Bay has lost four of their last five games and they finished second in the Atlantic standings with 102 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.56 goals per game and they have allowed 2.63 goals against per game, while also going 25.9% on the power play and 81.6% on the penalty kill this season. Jake Guentzel has led TB with two goals, three assists, and 12 shots on goal, while Nikita Kucherov has added four assists in the series. Andrei Vasilevskiy 1-3-0 with a 2.79 goals against average and an .884 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Lightning will beat the Panthers 

• The Panthers have lost six of their last eight road games.
• The Lightning have won six of their last eight Game 5s of a playoff series.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six road games following a win.
• The Panthers have lost the third period in six of their last seven games as underdogs at Amalie Arena when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Eight of the Lightning’s last nine home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the last seven games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Panthers’ last six games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Panthers’ last 10 Wednesday night games.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the Lightning’s last five games following a road loss.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored a goal in four of the Lightning’s last five games against the Panthers at Amalie Arena.
• Victor Hedman has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games against the Panthers at Amalie Arena.
• Victor Hedman has recorded at least one point in each of his last eight Wednesday night home appearances.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for Assists (84) this season.

Florida Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Sam Bennett has scored a goal in four of the Panthers’ last five road playoff games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Aleksander Barkov has recorded at least one assist in five of his last six appearances in night games.
• Sam Reinhart has recorded at least one point in each of his last seven appearances in night games at Amalie Arena.
• Aleksander Barkov ranks T1st in the Eastern Conference for shootout goals (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.63).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.86%).
• The Florida Panthers rank 2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (12).
• The Florida Panthers rank 3rd in the league for shots per game this season (31.6).

Panthers vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay looked like they were on their way to tying the series at two in game four, but they couldn’t hang onto the lead and will fight to stay in the series here. The Lightning have been very good at home this year, but they lost games one and two on home ice. Florida continues to be very strong defensively and Bobrovsky is elite in the playoffs. This should be another very tight game, but I will side with Tampa Bay to avoid elimination behind a strong performance from Kucherov and Guentzel. Take the Lightning to win here. 

David Racey's Pick: Lightning ML