| MATCHUP | Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 0-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Spread | +1.5 -258 | -1.5 210 |
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (105) | Under 6.5 (-125) |
| Where | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Toronto Maple Leafs Preview
The Maple Leafs have 2 points this season with a 1-1-0 record, and are 1-1 ATS and 0-2 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-1 home win over the Islanders and will face the Predators and Golden Knights next.
Offensively, the Maple Leafs are averaging 2 goals per game and are scoring 0% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.00 goals per game and are killing 100% of their opponent’s power plays.
Easton Cowan leads the Maple Leafs with 3 points and 2 assists, while William Nylander leads the team in goals with 2. Anthony Stolarz is the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 1-0-0 record, with 1.03 GAA and .963 SV%. Sergei Bobrovsky is the backup goalie and he has a 0-1-0 record, with 3.06 GAA and .875 SV%.
Ottawa Senators Preview
The Senators finished last season with 99 points with a 44-27-11 record and were placed 5th in the Atlantic Division. They had a 23-12-6 home record, a 21-15-5 road record and were 40-46 ATS and 44-41 in over/under. They will face the Bruins and Red Wings next.
Offensively last season, the Senators averaged 3.35 goals per game and were scoring 23.95% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they allowed 2.99 goals per game and were killing 75.85% of their opponent’s power plays.
Tim Stützle led the Senators with 83 points and a team-high 34 goals, adding a team-high 49 assists. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie for the Senators, and he had a 28-12-8 record, with 2.73 GAA and .891 SV%. Leevi Merilainen was the backup goalie and he had a 8-10-1 record, with 3.51 GAA and .860 SV%.
Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: October 3, 2026
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win
- The Senators have lost each of their last four games.
- The Maple Leafs have won each of their last four games against the Senators following a home win.
- The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven road openers.
- The favorites have covered the puck line in each of the last three games between the Senators and Maple Leafs.
- The favorites have won the second period in seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games.
Why the Ottawa Senators will win
- The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The Senators have won four of their last five season openers as underdogs.
- The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The Senators have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Maple Leafs.
- The Senators have won the second period in each of their last six games as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
- Six of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games as favorites following a home win have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Four of the Senators’ last five games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 games as home favorites.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last 13 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts
- Easton Cowan has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts
- Drake Batherson has scored a goal in four of the Senators’ last five games.
- William Eklund has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances against the Maple Leafs.
- Drake Batherson ranked T4th in the league for multi-goal games (8) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 31st in the league for goals against per game last season (3.60).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (81.22%).
- The Ottawa Senators ranked 29th in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (75.74%).
- The Ottawa Senators ranked 8th in the league for goals per game last season (3.35).
Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction
The Senators are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Maple Leafs and have won two of their last three visits in Toronto.
In this Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction, the Maple Leafs are coming as -120 home favorites. The Leafs have already played two games this season with split results and playing against the Senators who will have fresh legs playing their first game of the season, I expect a high-scoring affair. Both goalies are coming off a sub-.900 SV% season, by far their worst in years and both teams are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 head-to-head meetings. Take the over 6 in this one.