Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 9/29/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet Tuesday in NHL action from the Scotiabank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction.

Montreal Canadiens Team Preview

The Montreal Canadiens come into the 2026-27 campaign looking to take the next step forward after a solid run in 2025-26, finishing with a 48-24-10 record, and the 106 points in a season being the highest recorded since 2014-15. The Habs would go the distance in the first two rounds of the playoffs, knocking off the Lightning and Sabres in 7 games before it would catch up to them in a 5-game gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. The top three names in Montreal’s lineup, Juraj Slafkovsky, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki are all coming off of career years, and the hope is that it will continue into 2026-27. Ivan Demidov would’ve probably won the Calder if Matthew Schaefer didn’t exist. The goaltending also looks promising for Toronto with the young tandem of Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler set to rule for years to come, but only time will tell if Montreal can follow up on last year’s success in what looks to be an improved Atlantic division.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recap

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into the 2026-27 season looking to shake off the worst season in recent memory, going 32-36-14, finishing with 76 points and missing the playoffs for the first time in the Auston Matthews era. This allowed Toronto to get a decent number in the draft lottery and for the second time in a row in the lottery, the Leafs won the #1 overall pick and used it to select Gavin McKenna, who has already slotted himself in as a second line winger alongside the likes of William Nylander and John Tavares. The porous record led to the firing of head coach Craig Berube and GM Brad Treliving, with Jim Hiller and John Chayka filling the respective roles. Health will be of the utmost importance to Toronto with the injuries derailing Auston Matthews’ season last year among others, but the key addition in goal of Sergei Bobrovsky gives Toronto stability in goal and a proven winner, even if Bobrovsky is getting up there in age. 

Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: September 29, 2026

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last 10 home openers.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last eight road openers.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the Maple Leafs’ last four games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four road openers.
• The favorites have won the second period in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six games.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have won four of their last five games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in 20 of their last 21 games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the first period in each of their last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last four home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Canadiens’ last three road openers have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last 12 games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games as home favorites.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of his last five appearances with the Maple Leafs as home favorites.
• John Tavares has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as favorites.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has scored a goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Lane Hutson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last six games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranked 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 31st in the league for goals against per game last season (3.60).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (81.22%).
• The Montreal Canadiens ranked 7th in the league for goals per game last season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens ranked T4th in the league in short handed goals allowed last season (4).

Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

I’m on Toronto in this one. I think there’s a sense of hope in Leaf Land with Bobrovsky coming in, and there’s some sense of order now that Leaf fans don’t have to wonder about goaltending going into game one (knock on wood). Montreal’s running it back with a solid core that went on a sustained run last year, but the Atlantic is going to bounce back and the teams that were good around them likely will be once again, Toronto included. I think Toronto starts their new era with a win so give me the Leafs at home in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Toronto -105