Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction 4/24/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, April 24th at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 2-0 in the series after winning the first two games by scores of 6-2 and 3-2. In their game two win, the Maple Leafs scored twice in the first period and led 2-0, but they allowed Ottawa to tie the game in the third, before scoring just three minutes into overtime for the win. Toronto recorded 21 shots on goal, won 53.4% of the face-offs, and went 1-1 on the power play in the game. The Maple Leafs got goals from Domi, Tavares, and Rielly, while Stolarz stopped 26 out of 28 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Maple Leafs defeated the Red Wings by a score of 4-3 and the Sabres by a score of 4-0. Toronto has won seven games in a row and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 108 points. Toronto has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 77.9% on the penalty kill this season. John Tavares has led Toronto with two goals, two assists, and seven shots on goal this postseason, while Mitch Marner has added one goal, three assists, and two shots on goal. Anthony Stolarz is 2-0-0 with a 1.95 goals against average and a .934 save percentage in the playoffs. 

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators are down 2-0 in the series and they are desperate for a win in this contest. In the game two loss, the Senators fell down 2-0 in the first period, but they played very well over the last two periods, before losing in overtime. The Senators recorded 28 shots on goal, won 46.6% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Ottawa got goals from Gaudette and Tkachuk, while Ullmark stopped 18 out of 21 shots in the loss.

Prior to this series, the Senators defeated the Hurricanes by a score of 7-5, but did lose to the Blackhawks by a score of 4-3 before that. Ottawa has lost three of their last four games and they finished fourth in the Atlantic standings with 97 points. Ottawa has scored 2.95 goals per game and they have allowed 2.83 goals against per game, while also going 23.7% on the power play and 77.7% on the penalty kill this season. There are 12 Senators tied with one point in this series, while Brady Tkachuk leads the team with 10 shots on goal. Linus Ullmark is 0-2-0 with a 4.39 goals against average and an .800 save percentage in the series. 

Why the Senators will beat the Maple Leafs 

• The Senators have won 10 of their last 11 home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost seven of their last eight night games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 11 night games at Canadian Tire Centre following a home win.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in 11 of their last 12 home games against the Maple Leafs.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in four of their last five games as underdogs when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Six of the Senators’ last seven games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games following an overtime win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last nine Thursday night games between teams from the same conference have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Shane Pinto has scored at least one goal in four of the Senators’ last five night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Thomas Chabot has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four appearances against Eastern Conference opponents at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Drake Batherson has recorded at least one point in each of the Senators’ last six home games.
• Michael Amadio has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• John Tavares has scored at least one goal in five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight night Game 3s of a playoff series.
• John Tavares has recorded at least one point in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games as road underdogs.
• William Nylander ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (45) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank T6th in the league in short handed goals this season (9).
• The Ottawa Senators rank T8th in the league for shots per game this season (29.3).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T8th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 2nd in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.23).

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction 

Ottawa comes into this matchup desperately trying to find a win to stay in this series, but they should have some momentum, as they were the better team in game two. The Senators had plenty of chances to score more than two goals and I think they will capitalize on more of those chances here. Toronto was dominant in game one, but they were sloppy in game two and were fortunate to win. The Senators were one of the better home teams in the NHL this season and I like them to get a big win here. 

David Racey's Pick: Senators ML