Lightning vs Stars Prediction 1/18/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Stars prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, January 18th at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 29-13-4 this season after they lost to St. Louis by a score of 3-2 in a shootout. Tampa Bay erased a 2-0 deficit in the second period, but they couldn’t score in the third and eventually lost in the shootout. The Lightning out shot St. Louis by a total of 36-21, won 53.8% of the face-offs, and went 2-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Bjorkstrand and Kucherov, while Vasilevskiy stopped 19 out of 21 shots, which was a .905 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Penguins by a score of 2-1 and the Flyers by a score of 5-1. The Lightning have won 11 of their last 12 games and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 62 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.48 goals per game and they have allowed 2.54 goals against per game, while also going 21.1% on the power play and 83.9% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 24 goals and 45 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 20 goals and 27 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 19-7-3 with a 2.26 goals against average and a .915 save percentage this season. 

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars are 27-12-9 this year after they lost to Utah by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Dallas tied the game at one early in the third period, but they allowed a goal about two minutes later for the loss. The Stars recorded 27 shots on goal, won 32.8% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Dallas got their lone goal from Rantanen, while Oettinger stopped 25 out of 27 shots, which was a .926 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Dallas lost to the Ducks by a score of 3-1, but did beat the Kings by a score of 3-1 before that. The Stars have lost three of their last four games and they are currently second in the Central standings with 63 points. Dallas has scored 3.31 goals per game and they have allowed 2.75 goals against per game, while also going 28.8% on the power play and 79.7% on the penalty kill this season. Mikko Rantanen has led Dallas with 19 goals and 44 assists, while Jason Robertson has added 27 goals and 29 assists. The projected starting goalie for Dallas is Jake Oettinger, who is 17-9-4 with a 2.68 goals against average and a .903 save percentage this year. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won nine of their last 10 day games.
• The Stars have lost four of their last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games at American Airlines Center following a road loss.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in four of their last five games against Central Division opponents.
• The Stars have lost the second period in four of their last five day games.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Lightning’s last eight games against Central Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Six of the Stars’ last seven day games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games following a shootout loss.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last five day games.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Mavrik Bourque has scored a goal in four of the Stars’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents at American Airlines Center.
• Miro Heiskanen has recorded an assist in each of the Stars’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Cirelli has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last four games against the Stars.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games.

Lightning vs Stars Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after having their long winning streak snapped in their last game, but they have allowed two regulation goals or fewer in five straight games. The Lightning are 17-4-4 on the road this year, while the Stars are 12-6-3 at home. Dallas has lost three of their last four games and they have scored just two total goals in their last two. The Stars have not played well over the last three weeks and with Tampa Bay’s defense playing at an elite level, I am going to take the Lightning to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Lightning ML