Lightning vs Sabres Prediction 4/5/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Sabres prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, April 5th at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 44-26-5 this year after they lost to Ottawa by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay cut the deficit to 2-1 in the second period, but couldn’t find anymore offense in the loss. The Lightning out shot Ottawa by a total of 32-19, won 42.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got their lone goal from Hagel, while Vasilevskiy stopped 17 out of 19 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Lightning defeated the Islanders in back to back games by scores of 4-1 and 5-3. Tampa Bay has won four of their last five games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 93 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.56 goals per game and they have allowed 2.61 goals against per game, while also going 25.1% on the power play and 82.1% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 33 goals, 78 assists, and 247 shots on goal, while Brandon Hagel has added 34 goals, 48 assists, and 214 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 36-20-3 with a 2.16 goals against average and a .922 save percentage this year. 

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 32-36-6 this season after they defeated Ottawa by a score of 5-2 in their last game. Buffalo scored the first three goals in the game and kept at least a two goal lead the rest of the way in the victory. The Sabres were out shot by a total of 35-22, won 39.3% of the face-offs, and went 0-1 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got goals from Krebs, McLeod, Thompson, Tuch, and Dahlin, while Reimer stopped 33 out of 35 shots in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Sabres defeated the Capitals by a score of 8-5, but did lose to the Flyers by a score of 7-4 before that. Buffalo has won five of their last six games and they are currently second to last in the Atlantic standings with 70 points. Buffalo has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 3.54 goals against per game, while also going 18.3% on the power play and 76.3% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led Buffalo with 39 goals, 27 assists, and 215 shots on goal, while JJ Peterka has added 23 goals, 37 assists, and 153 shots on goal. James Reimer is 7-6-2 with a 2.81 goals against average and a .905 save percentage for the Sabres this season. 

Why the Sabres will beat the Lightning 

• The Sabres have won each of their last five games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost nine of their last 16 games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in 14 of their last 15 games as home underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games following a road loss.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in four of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the last 10 games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Sabres’ last four games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Lightning’s last six games as favorites following a road loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last 10 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last six road games against the Sabres.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Tage Thompson has scored at least one goal in each of the Sabres’ last four night games at KeyBank Center.
• JJ Peterka has recorded at least one point in each of the Sabres’ last seven games as underdogs.
• Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents at KeyBank Center.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in three of the Lightning’s last four games.
• Oliver Bjorkstrand has recorded a point in each of his last eight road appearances against the Sabres.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games as favorites against the Sabres.

Lightning vs Sabres Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup playing at a high level over the last two weeks, but Tampa Bay is 23 points better than Buffalo in the standings. The Lightning are 17-18-3 on the road this year, while the Sabres are 19-14-3 at home. Tampa Bay is the much better team when looking at the numbers this year, but they don’t play their best on the road and will face a Buffalo team that has scored 5+ goals in three of their last four games. Take the Sabres to stay hot and get another win here. 

David Racey's Pick: Sabres ML