Lightning vs Rangers Prediction 10/1/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Rangers prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, October 1st at Madison Square Garden in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning went 50-26-6 last year and they finished with 106 points, which was tied for second in the Atlantic Division. Tampa Bay was three points behind the Sabres for first and six points ahead of the Bruins in fourth. The Lightning started the season with a 5-4 loss against the Senators and they were just 1-6 through seven games. Tampa Bay went on a long winning streak in December and stayed hot for the rest of the regular season. The Lightning played the Canadiens in the playoffs, but they lost in seven games, with all seven games being decided by just one goal. TB scored 286 goals last year, which was 4th in the NHL, while they allowed 229 goals against, which was 3rd. 

In the preseason, Tampa Bay went 2-1-1, which was tied for third in the Atlantic Division with three other teams. The Lightning got wins against the Predators and Panthers, but also lost to the Predators and Panthers. Tampa Bay is led by Nikita Kucherov, who had 44 goals and 86 assists, while Jake Guentzel added 38 goals and 50 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the projected starting goalie, who went 39-15-4 with a 2.31 goals against average and a .912 save percentage last year. 

New York Rangers Betting Preview

The New York Rangers are 0-1-0 this season after they lost to the Bruins by a score of 3-0 in their first game. New York played a strong defensive game, but they allowed three goals in the last four minutes for the loss. The Rangers out shot Boston by a total of 24-23, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 0-1 on the power play in the game. New York was led by Pavel Dorofeyev, who had five shots on goal, while Igor Shesterkin stopped 20 out of 22 shots, which was a .909 save percentage. 

The Rangers went 34-39-9 last season and finished with 77 points, which was last in the Metro standings. The Rangers were 10 points behind the next team in the standings and 21 points out of a playoff spot. New York started the 25-26 season with a 3-0 loss to the Penguins and they only had three wins in their first 10 games. The Rangers never really got going last year and really struggled to string wins together. New York scored 235 goals last year, which was 23rd in the NHL, while they allowed 249 goals against, which was 15th. 

Why the New York Rangers will win

• The Rangers have won each of their last two games as underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last seven games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Rangers have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight home games.
• The Lightning have lost the first period in five of their last six night games against Metropolitan Division opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Rangers have lost each of their last seven games at Madison Square Garden when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The road team has won four of the last five games between the Lightning and Rangers.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in six of the last seven games between the Lightning and Rangers at Madison Square Garden.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last four games when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last six games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Six of the Rangers’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine games at Madison Square Garden.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 11 of the Rangers’ last 12 night games at Madison Square Garden.

New York Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Adam Fox has scored a goal in each of the Rangers’ last three night games at Madison Square Garden.
• Mika Zibanejad has recorded at least one assist in each of the Rangers’ last four home games.
• Mika Zibanejad ranked T5th in the league for Power Play Goals (16) last season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in five of his last six appearances with the Lightning as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games at Madison Square Garden.
• Nikita Kucherov ranked 2nd in the league for Points (130) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Rangers ranked 4th in the league in save percentage last season (.905).
• The New York Rangers ranked T26th in the league in short handed goals allowed last season (9).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game last season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranked 4th in the league for goals per game last season (3.49).

Lightning vs Rangers Prediction

New York started the season with a very good defensive game, but they failed to score in the shutout loss. The Rangers had a disappointing 25-26 season and it didn’t look like much changed in the first game. Tampa Bay is looking to start this year better than they did last year, but they are very reliant on Kucherov to produce points. This is a pretty good goalie battle if Shesterkin gets the start, but I have to side with Tampa Bay on the road here.

David Racey's Pick: Lightning ML