Lightning vs Panthers Prediction 4/26/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Panthers prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, April 26th at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are down 2-0 in this series and they will now be on the road, so it is not looking good for them. In their game two loss, the Lightning allowed a goal early in the first period, which was enough for the loss, as their offense couldn’t find the back of the net. Tampa Bay recorded 19 shots on goal, won 48.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-5 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay was led by Cernak and McDonagh, who both had four shots on goal, while Vasilevskiy stopped 21 out of 22 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Lightning lost to the Rangers by a score of 4-0, but did beat the Panthers by a score of 5-1 before that. Tampa Bay has lost five of their last seven games and they finished second in the Atlantic standings with 102 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.56 goals per game and they have allowed 2.63 goals against per game, while also going 25.9% on the power play and 81.6% on the penalty kill this season. There are six Lightning players tied with one point in this series, while Guentzel has led the way with six shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 0-2-0 with a 3.56 goals against average and an .821 save percentage this postseason. 

Florida Panthers Betting Preview

The Florida Panthers are up 2-0 in the series, as they have won games one and two by scores of 6-2 and 2-0. In their game two win, the Panthers got a goal just 4:15 into the first period and they played great defense the rest of the way, before adding an empty net goal with just four seconds left. Florida recorded 23 shots on goal, won 51.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. The Panthers got goals from Bennett and Schmidt, while Bobrovsky stopped all 19 shots in the win. 

Prior to this series, the Panthers lost to the Lightning by a score of 5-1 and the Rangers by a score of 5-3. Florida has won five of their last seven games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 98 points. Florida has scored 3.00 goals per game and they have allowed 2.72 goals against per game, while also going 23.5% on the power play and 80.7% on the penalty kill this season. There are five Panthers tied with three points in this series, but Nate Schmidt has led the way with three goals. Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0-0 with a 1.00 goals against average and a .951 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Panthers will beat the Lightning

• The Lightning have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Panthers have won six of their last seven Game 3s of a playoff series.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Panthers have won the second period in each of their last seven Saturday games at Amerant Bank Arena.

Why the Lightning will beat the Panthers 

• The underdogs have won three of the Panthers’ last four games.
• The Panthers have lost each of their last four day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 10 of the Lightning’s last 11 games at Amerant Bank Arena.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Panthers have lost the third period in six of their last seven games as favorites when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Panthers’ last four home games following a road win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last four road games following a home loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine Saturday at Amerant Bank Arena.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in eight of the Panthers’ last nine day games against opponents on a losing streak.

Florida Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Sam Reinhart has scored at least one goal in eight of the Panthers’ last nine Game 3s of a playoff series.
• Aaron Ekblad has recorded at least one assist in each of his last six appearances.
• Aleksander Barkov has recorded at least one point in each of his last 10 appearances against Eastern Conference opponents at Amerant Bank Arena.
• Aleksander Barkov ranks T1st in the Eastern Conference for shootout goals (4) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in each of his last four playoff appearances with his team as a road underdog against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 14 of his last 15 appearances in Game 3s of a playoff series.
• Yanni Gourde has recorded at least one point in each of his last seven playoff appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for Assists (84) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Florida Panthers rank 2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (12).
• The Florida Panthers rank 3rd in the league for shots per game this season (31.6).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.63).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.86%).

Lightning vs Panthers Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this game down 2-0 and they will be on the road, so this series might be over if they can’t find any offense. The Lightning have scored just two goals in the first two games and they were 18-19-4 on the road in the regular season. Florida has played fantastic defense so far in the series and they are 27-12-2 at home. Tampa Bay was the slightly better team in the regular season when looking at the numbers, but Vasilevskiy has played very poorly in this series. I think we are going to see some goals in this game, as I expect Florida to score early, which will open up the game. Take the over here. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 5.5