| MATCHUP | Tampa Bay Lightning | New York Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-1-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Spread | -1.5 160 | +1.5 -192 |
| Moneyline | -170 | +142 |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-118) | Under 5.5 (-102) |
| Where | UBS Arena, Elmont, NY | |
| When | Saturday, October 10, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Islanders prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, October 10th at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 3-1-0 this season after they defeated the Wild by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay had their lead cut to 3-2 in the second period, but they locked down on defense for the win. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 36-35, won 43.1% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay was led by John Carlson, who had two goals, while Dennis Hildeby stopped 34 out of 36 shots, which was a .944 save percentage in the game.
Prior to that win, Tampa Bay defeated the Flyers by a score of 4-1 and the Capitals by a score of 3-1. The Lightning have scored 2.75 goals per game and they have allowed 2.25 goals against per game, while also going 6.3% on the power play and 77.8% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led the team with one goal and five assists, while Andrei Vasilevskiy is 2-1-0 with a 2.05 goals against average and a .900 save percentage this season.
New York Islanders Betting Preview
The New York Islanders are 2-2-0 this year after they defeated the Blackhawks by a score of 4-1 in their last game. New York had their lead cut to 3-1 in the third period, but they added an empty net goal to seal the win. The Islanders were out shot by a total of 23-19, won 59.2% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. New York was led by Bo Horvat, who had two goals, while Ilya Sorokin stopped 22 out of 23 shots, which was a .957 save percentage in the win.
Prior to that game, New York lost to the Rangers by a score of 5-2, but did beat the Devils by a score of 6-0 before that. The Islanders have scored 3.25 goals per game and they have allowed 2.00 goals against per game, while also going 20.0% on the power play and 86.7% on the penalty kill this season. Bo Horvat has led the team with four goals and one assist, while Ilya Sorokin is 2-1-0 with a 1.01 goals against average and a .965 save percentage this year.
Why the New York Islanders will win
- The Islanders have won 10 of their last 12 games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Lightning have lost five of their last seven games as road favorites following a win.
- The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the puck line in 13 of the Lightning’s last 15 games.
- The Lightning have lost the first period in each of their last three road games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
- The Islanders have lost five of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Lightning have won five of their last six games against the Islanders following a home win.
- The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five home games following a win.
- The Lightning have covered the puck line in four of their last five night games against the Islanders following a home win.
- The Islanders have lost the first period in five of their last six home games following a win.
Total Goals Facts
- Each of the Lightning’s last six games following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the last five night games between the Lightning and Islanders have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Lightning and Islanders at UBS Arena.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last three road games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
New York Islanders Player Prop Facts
- Mathew Barzal has recorded an assist in four of his last five home appearances against the Lightning.
- Bo Horvat has scored at least one goal in four of the Islanders’ last five games.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
- Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in four of the Lightning’s last five games as road favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
- Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight appearances at UBS Arena.
Matchup/League Facts
- The New York Islanders rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (0).
- The New York Islanders have recorded the equal-largest margin of victory in a home game this season (6-goals vs Devils on October, 3).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (0).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T1st in the league for Period 3 goals allowed per game this season (0.25).
Lightning vs Islanders Prediction
Tampa Bay comes into this contest on a three game winning streak and they have allowed two goals or fewer in all three wins. The Lightning are 0-1-0 on the road this year, while the Islanders are 2-0-0 at home. New York has won two of their last three games and they have allowed two goals or fewer in three of their four games. The Islanders are getting elite goaltending from Sorokin and I think we could see a lower scoring game here. Take the under.