Lightning vs Golden Knights Prediction 3/23/25 NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Golden Knights prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, March 23rd at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 40-24-5 this year after they lost to Utah by a score of 6-4 in their last game. Tampa Bay tied the game at three in the second period, but they allowed three of the last four goals in the game for the loss. The Lightning outshot Utah by a total of 26-25, won 47.7% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Cirelli, Guentzel, and Point (2), while Halverson stopped 19 out of 24 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Lightning defeated the Stars by a score of 3-2 and the Flyers by a score of 2-0. Tampa Bay has won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 85 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.49 goals per game and they have allowed 2.63 goals against per game, while also going 25.7% on the power play and 82.1% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 29 goals, 68 assists, and 219 shots on goal, while Brandon Hagel has added 32 goals, 44 assists, and 197 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 33-18-3 with a 2.23 goals against average and a .920 save percentage this year. 

Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview

The Vegas Golden Knights are 41-20-8 this season after they defeated Detroit by a score of 6-3 in their last game. Vegas had their lead cut to 3-2 early in the second period, but they scored three of the last four goals in the game to pull away with the win. The Golden Knights outshot Detroit by a total of 36-31, won 50.8% of the face-offs, and went 2-2 on the power play in the game. Vegas got goals from Eichel, Hertl (3), Roy, and Stone, while Hill stopped 28 out of 31 shots in the win. 

Prior to that victory, the Golden Knights defeated the Bruins by a score of 5-1 but did lose to the Red Wings by a score of 3-0 before that. Vegas has won three of their last five games and they are currently first in the Pacific standings with 90 points. Vegas has scored 3.32 goals per game and they have allowed 2.68 goals against per game, while also going 28.9% on the power play and 76.8% on the penalty kill this season. Jack Eichel has led Vegas with 22 goals, 64 assists, and 208 shots on goal, while Mark Stone has added 18 goals, 43 assists, and 113 shots on goal this year. Ilya Samsonov is 15-9-3 with a 2.81 goals against average and an .889 save percentage this season. 

Why the Golden Knights will beat the Lightning 

• The Golden Knights have won seven of their last eight games at T-Mobile Arena.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Golden Knights have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games.
• The Golden Knights have won the third period in each of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents at T-Mobile Arena when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the last eight night games between the Lightning and Golden Knights have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Lightning’s last eight night games against Pacific Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 18 of the Golden Knights’ last 19 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine Sunday games.

Vegas Golden Knights Player Prop Facts

• Jack Eichel has recorded at least one point in 19 of his last 20 appearances with the Golden Knights as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Jack Eichel has recorded at least one assist in each of the Golden Knights’ last seven home games against opponents who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• Jack Eichel has scored a goal in four of the Golden Knights’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents at T-Mobile Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one point in each of his last 10 Sunday road appearances.
• Brayden Point has recorded at least one assist in eight of his last nine road appearances against Pacific Division opponents.
• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last four games against Pacific Division opponents.

Lightning vs Golden Knights Prediction 

Vegas comes into this contest looking for their third win in a row and they have scored 11 goals in their last two games against Detroit and Boston. The Golden Knights are 26-7-3 at home this year, while the Lightning are 16-16-3 on the road. Tampa Bay has won three of their last four games, but they did lose in Utah on Saturday night. Both of these teams have very similar metrics when looking at the numbers, but I have to take Vegas at home. The Golden Knights have been elite on home ice and I will take them at a decent price.