Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 10/30/2025 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Oct 21, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars left wing Jason Robertson (21) skates past Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins (90) during the game between the Stars and the Blue Jackets at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Records
6-3-2
5-4-2
Where
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
When
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Time
07:00 PM EDT
TV
TNT
The Dallas Stars and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
Dallas Stars Recap
The Dallas Stars come into this game looking to add on to their 1-0 win over the Washington Capitals last time out to sit at 6-3-1 this season. After this game, Dallas will head on the road for a game against the Florida Panthers.
Stars Win 3 In A Row
Mikko Rantanen has a team-high 12 points with 4 goals and 8 assists while Wyatt Johnston has 10 points with a team-high 6 goals and 4 assists. Jason Robertson has 9 points with 3 goals and 6 assists while Roope Hintz and Thomas Harley each have 8 points with 7 assists apiece. Tyler Seguin has 5 points with 3 goals and 2 assists and Miro Heiskanen has 5 points with 2 goals and 3 assists. Esa Lindell has 4 points with 3 assists while Radek Faksa, Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist each have 3 points with 2 assists. Jake Oettinger has gone 5-2-1 with a 2.61 GAA and a .909 save percentage in goal for Dallas while Casey DeSmith has gone 1-1 with a 3.55 GAA and an .863 save percentage so far this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their 5-2 win over the Nashville Predators last time out to sit at 4-4-2 this season. After this game, Tampa Bay will head on the road for a game against Utah to begin a west coast road trip.
Lightning Pick Up 3rd Straight W
Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel each have 10 points with 4 goals and 6 assists apiece while Anthony Cirelli has 9 points with 5 goals and 4 assists. Victor Hedman has 8 assists while Brayden Point has 8 points with 2 goals and 6 assists. Brandon Hagel has 7 points with 2 goals and 5 assists while Ryan McDonagh has 5 points with 3 goals and Pontus Holmberg has 5 points with 4 assists. Yanni Gourde has 3 points with a pair of goals while Oliver Bjorkstrand and Darren Raddysh each have 3 points with 2 assists apiece. Maxwell Crozier and Gage Goncalves has 3 assists apiece. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 2-3-2 with a 2.86 GAA and an .893 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 2-1 with a 3.04 GAA and a .913 save percentage this season.
Dallas Stars @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: October 30, 2025
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
The Lightning have won each of their last five home games against opponents on a winning streak.
The Stars have lost four of their last five games at Benchmark International Arena following a win.
The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games.
The Lightning have covered the puck line in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites following a road win.
The Stars have lost the third period in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs.
Why the Dallas Stars will win
The Lightning have lost each of their last three games as favorites following a road win.
The Stars have won four of their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last eight home games.
The Stars have covered the puck line in each of their last six games as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Lightning have lost the third period in seven of their last eight home games.
Total Goals Facts
Each of the Stars’ last six games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Twelve of the Lightning’s last 15 home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last 14 games against opponents on a winning streak.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 10 home games against opponents on a winning streak.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
Anthony Cirelli has scored at least one goal in four of the Lightning’s last five games against the Stars.
Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last 11 games as favorites against Central Division opponents.
Brayden Point has recorded at least one point in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Lightning as home favorites against Central Division opponents.
Brandon Hagel has recorded 2+ points in each of his last three appearances – equal-longest streak by any player since Robert Thomas in 2023/24.
Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts
Jason Robertson has scored a goal in each of the Stars’ last three games as underdogs.
Thomas Harley has recorded at least one assist in four of the Stars’ last five road games.
Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one point in 10 of the Stars’ last 11 games.
Mikko Rantanen ranks T2nd in the league for Power Play Points (8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T27th in the league in power play percentage this season (14.29%).
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 7th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (88.24%).
The Dallas Stars rank 3rd in the league in power play percentage this season (31.43%).
The Dallas Stars rank 3rd in the league for power play goals this season (11).
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
I’m on the Stars in this one. I just think that these two teams are a lot closer in current form than this line would suggest, and the Stars in my opinion, shouldn’t be this sizeable of an underdog in this matchup. The Lightning have started to wake up after a slow start, but the Stars are no slouch and I think the Stars get it done here at a great price. Give me Dallas in this one.
