Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction 5/18/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Canadiens vs Sabres prediction for this NHL game on Monday, May 18th at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL playoff matchup.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are tied 3-3 in this series after they split the first six games by scores of 2-4, 5-1, 6-2, 2-3, 6-3, and 3-8. In game six, Montreal led 3-1 in the first period, but they allowed the next seven goals for the disappointing loss. The Canadiens recorded 22 shots on goal, won 39.3% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Montreal got goals from Demidov, Evans, and Xhekaj, while Dobes stopped 27 out of 33 shots, which was an .818 save percentage. 

Prior to this series, Montreal defeated the Lightning in seven games by scores of 4-3, 2-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, 0-1, and 2-1. The Canadiens have won three of their last five games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 106 points. Montreal scored 3.40 goals per game and they allowed 3.06 goals against per game, while also going 23.1% on the power play and 78.2% on the penalty kill this season. Lane Hutson has led the Canadiens with two goals and 11 assists, while Nick Suzuki has added four goals and eight assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 7-6 with a 2.59 goals against average and a .906 save percentage this postseason. 

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are tied 3-3 in this series after they won game six by a score of 8-3 on Saturday night. Buffalo led 1-0 early in the first period, but they trailed 3-2 after one, before scoring three goals in the second and third for the win. The Sabres recorded 36 shots on goal, won 60.7% of the face-offs, and went 4-6 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got goals from Benson, Helenius, Quinn (2), Thompson, Zucker, Dahlin, and Metsa, while UPL stopped all 18 shots in the win. 

Prior to this series, Buffalo defeated the Bruins in six games by scores of 4-3, 2-4, 3-1, 6-1, 1-2, and 4-1. The Sabres have won four of their last seven games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 109 points. Buffalo scored 3.45 goals per game and they allowed 2.93 goals against per game, while also going 19.5% on the power play and 81.9% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led the Sabres with five goals and 10 assists, while Rasmus Dahlin has added three goals and 10 assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is UPL, who is 3-2 with a 3.36 goals against average and an .875 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won 13 of their last 16 night games at KeyBank Center following a road win.
• The Canadiens have lost the second period in five of their last six games when leading after the first period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last eight games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Sabres have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 17 games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites.
• The Sabres have lost the second period in six of their last seven games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Five of the Canadiens’ last six games at KeyBank Center following a home loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between the Canadiens and Sabres have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last seven games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last six games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Tage Thompson has scored a goal in three of the Sabres’ last four playoff games.
• Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last four playoff games.
• Tage Thompson has scored six goals against the Canadiens this season – most against any opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has scored a goal in each of the Canadiens’ last four road playoff games.
• Lane Hutson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last five playoff games.
• Ivan Demidov has recorded at least four shots in each of his last two appearances – equal-longest active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Buffalo Sabres are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Buffalo Sabres rank T2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (11).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only two teams to win 30+ games when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season.
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).

Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup with plenty of momentum after winning game six by a score of 8-3, but they are 0-2 in their last two home games. The Sabres were 26-10-5 at home this year, while the Canadiens were 24-9-8 on the road. Montreal has scored at least five goals in three of their last five games, but Buffalo is the better offensive team overall and I think UPL will be ready to go after playing a great game six. Take the Sabres to get the game seven win here.

David Racey's Pick: Sabres ML