Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 2/3/2026 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jan 29, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) shoots and scores an empty net goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Buffalo Sabres
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Records
32-18-5
35-14-4
Spread
+1.5 -142
-1.5 120
Moneyline
+170
-205
Total
Over 6.5 (100)
Under 6.5 (-120)
Where
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
When
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Time
07:30 PM EST
TV
ESPN+
The Buffalo Sabres and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Tuesday in NHL action from Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
Buffalo Sabres Recap
The Buffalo Sabres come into this game looking to add on to their 5-3 win over Florida last time out to sit at 32-18-5 this season. After this game, Buffalo will take on Pittsburgh at home.
Sabres Win 6 Of Last 7
Tage Thompson leads the Sabres in scoring with 57 points coming on a team-high 29 goals and 28 assists while Alex Tuch has 48 points with 22 goals and 26 assists and Rasmus Dahlin has 46 points with a team-high 35 assists. Josh Doan has 38 points with 17 goals and 21 assists and Ryan McLeod has 39 points with 11 goals and 28 assists. Bowen Byram has 27 points with 10 goals and 17 assists while Jack Quinn’s added 35 points with 12 goals and 23 assists this season. Alex Lyon has gone 14-7-3 with a 2.66 GAA and a .914 save percentage in goal for Buffalo while Colten Ellis is 7-4 with a 3.06 GAA and an .898 save percentage so far this season. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has gone 11-7-2 with a 2.73 GAA and a .903 save percentage up to this point in the year.
Tampa Bay Lightning Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their 6-5 shootout win over Boston in the Stadium Series to improve to 35-14-4 this season. After this game, Tampa Bay will take on the Florida Panthers at home.
Lightning Win 3 In A Row
Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 86 points including 28 goals and 58 assists while Brandon Hagel has 52 points with 26 goals and 26 assists and Jake Guentzel has 57 points with 24 goals and 33 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 35 points with 15 goals and 20 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 49 points with 16 goals and 33 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 25-7-3 with a 2.12 GAA and a .919 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 10-7-1 with a 2.92 GAA and an .890 save percentage this season.
Buffalo Sabres @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: February 3, 2026
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
The Lightning have won each of their last 11 games following a home win.
The Sabres have lost each of their last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lightning.
Lightning has covered the puck line in each of its last six home matches when playing with a rest advantage against Sabres.
The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lightning.
The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last six games when leading after the second period.
Why the Buffalo Sabres will win
The Sabres have won each of their last eight games as underdogs following a road win.
The Lightning have lost four of their last six games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Sabres have won the third period in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a road win.
Total Goals Facts
Each of the Lightning’s last seven night games against the Sabres following a home win have gone OVER the total goals line.
Each of the Sabres’ last six games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Five of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Sabres and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
Darren Raddysh has scored a goal in each of the Lightning’s last four games.
Brayden Point has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-point games (30) this season.
Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts
Tage Thompson has scored a goal in four of the Sabres’ last five road games.
Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in nine of the Sabres’ last 10 games against the Lightning.
Tage Thompson has recorded a positive plus minus rating in each of his last five appearances – equal-longest active streak in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.49).
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.53).
The Buffalo Sabres rank T5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
The Buffalo Sabres rank 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.55%).
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
I’m on the Sabres +1.5 here. I just think the Sabres have earned the respect to think that they’ll be a tough out and the olympic break may not be coming at a worse time for another team in the NHL right now. Buffalo has proven impervious to the back-to-back and any real adversity during this winning run they’ve been on, and I think they get the cover if not the outright win here. Give me Buffalo +1.5.
