| MATCHUP | Buffalo Sabres | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 36-19-6 | 31-16-13 |
| Spread | -1.5 205 | +1.5 -250 |
| Moneyline | -115 | -105 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115) |
| Where | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA | |
| When | Thursday, March 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
In this article, we will formulate a Sabres vs Penguins Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, March 5th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins Preview
The Penguins have 75 points this season with a 31-16-13 record, and are 38-22 ATS and 30-28 in over/under. They have a 15-8-7 home record and a 16-8-6 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Metropolitan Division. They are coming off a 2-1 road loss to the Bruins, and their previous three games were a 5-0 home win over the Golden Knights, a 3-2 road shootout loss to the Rangers, and a 4-1 home win over the Devils.
Offensively, the Penguins are averaging 3.38 goals per game and are scoring 26.1% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.78 goals per game and are killing 84.6% of their opponent’s power plays.
Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins with 59 points and 27 goals, while Evgeni Malkin leads the team in assists with 34. Stuart Skinner is the starting goalie for the Penguins, and he has a 19-13-6 record, with 2.74 GAA and .892 SV%. Arturs Silovs is the backup goalie and he has a 13-7-8 record, with 2.75 GAA and .902 SV%.
Buffalo Sabres Preview
The Sabres have 78 points this season with a 36-19-6 record, and are 35-26 ATS and 29-29 in over/under. They have a 18-8-3 home record and a 18-11-3 road record and are sitting 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 3-2 home win over the Golden Knights, and their previous three games were a 6-2 road win over the Lightning, a 3-2 road win over the Panthers, and a 2-1 road win over the Devils.
Offensively, the Sabres are averaging 3.38 goals per game and are scoring 19.9% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.00 goals per game and are killing 82.9% of their opponent’s power plays.
Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 64 points and 33 goals, while Rasmus Dahlin leads the team in assists with 41. Alex Lyon is the starting goalie for the Sabres, and he has a 16-8-3 record, with 2.66 GAA and .915 SV%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the backup goalie and he has a 13-7-2 record, with 2.62 GAA and .908 SV%.
Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Trends: March 5, 2026
Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win
- The Penguins have won each of their last eight Thursday games as home underdogs.
- The Sabres have lost each of their last three games as favorites following a home win.
- The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in 10 of their last 12 games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Penguins have won the first period in nine of their last 10 home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Why the Buffalo Sabres will win
- The Sabres have won eight of their last nine road games.
- The Penguins have lost each of their last four games against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 11 road games.
- The Sabres have won the second period in each of their last five games as favorites following a home win.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the last eight games between the Sabres and Penguins at PPG Paints Arena have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the Sabres’ last four games as favorites following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the last 12 games between the Sabres and Penguins.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last nine games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts
- Yegor Chinakhov has scored a goal in four of the Penguins’ last five home games.
- Evgeni Malkin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Penguins’ last seven home games.
- Rickard Rakell has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.
Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts
- Joshua Norris has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a road favorite.
- Tage Thompson has scored a goal in four of the Sabres’ last five games.
- Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 2nd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (84.57%).
- The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 3rd in the league in power play percentage this season (26.09%).
- The Buffalo Sabres rank 6th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.93%).
- The Buffalo Sabres rank 8th in the league for goals per game this season (3.38).
Sabres vs Penguins Prediction
The Penguins have won both meetings against the Sabres this season, at home by 4-2 and on the road by 5-2. They are 7-3 in their last 10 overall meetings against the Sabres and 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
In this Sabres vs Penguins Prediction, the Sabres are coming as -115 road favorites. Both teams have been excellent this season and the Sabres have come red-hot after the Olympic break, having won all of their four games by playing excellent defense, having conceded just 7 goals in that span. On the flip side, the Penguins have lost two of their last three games but are 4-1 in their last 5 home games and have an excellent history against the Sabres, having won both meetings this season with a combined 9-4 score. Take the Penguins at home in a very good price.