Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction 5/12/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

2 hours ago

May 10, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens forward Alex Newhook (15) on his way to score an empty net goal and Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) defending during the third period in game three of the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Buffalo Sabres	Montreal Canadiens
Team Records	50-23-9	48-24-10
Spread	+1.5 -218	-1.5 180
Moneyline	+120	-142
Total	Over 6.5 (105)	Under 6.5 (-125)
Where	Montreal Stadium
When	Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Time	07:00 PM EDT
TV	ESPN

In this article, we will formulate a Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction for Game 4 of this NHL Eastern Conference Semifinal on Tuesday, May 12th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Montreal Canadiens Preview

The Canadiens finished the regular season with 106 points with a 48-24-10 record and were placed 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They have a 24-15-2 home record and coming off a 6-2 home win over the Sabres. Their previous three games were a 5-1 road win and a 2-4 road loss to the Sabres, and a 2-1 road win over the Lightning.

Offensively, the Canadiens are averaging 3.40 goals per game and are scoring 23.1% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.06 goals per game and are killing 78.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 101 points and 72 assists, while Cole Caufield leads the team in goals with 51. Jakub Dobes is the starting goalie for the Canadiens, and he has a 29-10-4 record, with 2.78 GAA and .901 SV%. Samuel Montembeault is the backup goalie and he has a 10-8-4 record, with 3.43 GAA and .872 SV%.

Buffalo Sabres Preview

The Sabres finished the regular season with 109 points with a 50-23-9 record and were placed 1st in the Atlantic Division. They have a 24-13-4 road record and are coming off a 2-6 road loss to the Canadiens. Their previous three games were a 1-5 road loss and a 4-2 home win over the Canadiens, and a 4-1 road win over the Bruins.

Offensively, the Sabres are averaging 3.45 goals per game and are scoring 19.5% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.93 goals per game and are killing 81.9% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 81 points and 40 goals, while Rasmus Dahlin leads the team in assists with 55. Alex Lyon is the starting goalie for the Sabres, and he has a 20-10-4 record, with 2.77 GAA and .907 SV%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the backup goalie and he has a 22-9-3 record, with 2.52 GAA and .910 SV%.

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens Betting Trends: May 12, 2026

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

The Canadiens have won seven of their last eight home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Sabres have lost five of their last six games at Bell Centre against opponents on a winning streak.
The Canadiens have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 11 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Canadiens have won the third period in each of their last five games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the second period.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

The Sabres have won 12 of their last 15 games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Canadiens have lost six of their last eight games as home favorites following a home win.
The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a home win.
The Sabres have won the third period in each of their last six road games when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

Eight of the Sabres’ last nine road games following a road loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
Each of the Canadiens’ last four games against the Sabres following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Each of the last three games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last 11 road games.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Sabres and Canadiens.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

Cole Caufield has scored a goal in five of the Canadiens’ last six games as favorites against the Sabres.
Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last six games as favorites against the Sabres.
Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

Bowen Byram has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Sabres’ last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
Alex Tuch has scored a goal in five of the Sabres’ last six road games.
Tage Thompson has scored four goals against the Canadiens this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
The Montreal Canadiens are one of only two teams to win 30+ games when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season.
The Buffalo Sabres rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (81.90%).
The Buffalo Sabres rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).

Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction

The Canadiens are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Sabres and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Montreal.

In this Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction, the Canadiens are coming as -135 home favorites. The Habs turned the series upside down with back-to-back commanding wins with a combined 11-3 score and are now up 2-1 wins and have a chance to get a third win at home that will bring them on the verge of the conference finals. They have been dominating the Sabres on home ice and I cannot go against them the way they are playing. Take the Canadiens for another home victory in this matchup.