Dallas Stars (50-26-6) vs Colorado Avalanche (49-29-4)
Game Info: Monday, April 28, 2025 at 9:30 pm (American Airlines Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Dallas Stars +120 / Colorado Avalanche -142 — Over/Under: 6.5
In this article we will formulate an Avalanche vs Stars prediction for this NHL game on Monday, April 28th at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview
The Colorado Avalanche are tied 2-2 in the series after they won game four by a score of 4-0 in their last game. Colorado scored two goals in the first period, one in the second, and one in the third for the easy win. The Avalanche recorded 48 shots on goal, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 1-1 on the power play in the game. Colorado got goals from Landeskog, MacKinnon, O’Connor, and Girard, while Blackwood stopped all 23 shots in the win.
Prior to this game, the Avalanche won game one by a score of 5-1, but did lose games two and three by scores of 4-3 and 2-1. Colorado has won three of their last five games and they finished third in the Central standings with 102 points. Colorado has scored 3.33 goals per game and they have allowed 2.82 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 79.8% on the penalty kill this season. Nathan MacKinnon has led Colorado with four goals, one assist, and 24 shots on goal, while Logan O’Connor has added two goals, three assists, and four shots on goal. Mackenzie Blackwood is 2-2 with a 1.60 goals against average and a .939 save percentage this series.
Dallas Stars Betting Preview
The Dallas Stars come into this matchup tied 2-2 in the series, but they are looking to bounce back after a rough game on Saturday. Dallas trailed 2-0 after the first period and they never got back into the game. The Stars recorded 23 shots on goal, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Dallas was led by Thomas Harley, who had three shots on goal and also blocked five shots on defense, while Oettinger stopped 31 out of 34 shots in the game.
Prior to this series, the Stars lost to the Predators by a score of 5-1 and the Red Wings by a score of 6-4. Dallas has lost nine of their last eleven games and they finished second in the Central standings with 106 points. Dallas has scored 3.35 goals per game and they have allowed 2.71 goals against per game, while also going 22% on the power play and 82% on the penalty kill this season. Thomas Harley has led Dallas with one goal, two assists, and three shots on goal, while Tyler Seguin has added two goals and six shots. Jake Oettinger is 2-2-0 with a 2.72 goals against average and a .911 save percentage this postseason.
Why the Avalanche will beat the Stars
- The Stars have lost four of their last five home games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 11 games.
- The Avalanche have covered the puck line in three of their last four road games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Stars have lost the second period in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
- Each of the Avalanche’s last six games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Seven of the last eight night games between the Avalanche and Stars at American Airlines Center have gone OVER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Avalanche’s last nine road games against the Stars.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in eight of the Stars’ last 10 games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts
- Tyler Seguin has scored a goal in three of his last four appearances with the Stars as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
- Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one assist in each of his five previous appearances in Game 5s of a Western Conference First Round series.
- Wyatt Johnston has recorded at least one point in 14 of the Stars’ last 15 games against Western Conference opponents at American Airlines Center.
- Esa Lindell ranks T2nd in the Central Division for Plus/Minus (+34) this season.
Colorado Avalanche Player Prop Facts
- Nathan MacKinnon has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances with the Avalanche as road favorites.
- Cale Makar has recorded at least one assist in each of the Avalanche’s last six playoff games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- Cale Makar has recorded at least one point in each of the Avalanche’s last six playoff games as road favorites.
- Artturi Lehkonen ranks 1st in the Central Division for Plus/Minus (+36) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Dallas Stars rank 6th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.71).
- The Dallas Stars are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
- The Colorado Avalanche rank 2nd in the league for Period 3 goals scored per game this season (1.32).
- The Colorado Avalanche rank 3rd in the league for shots against per game this season (25.9).
Avalanche vs Stars Prediction
Colorado comes into this contest after absolutely dominating the Stars in game four, but they will be back on the road here. The Avalanche already have a 5-1 win on the road in game one, but they also lost 4-3 in overtime in game two. Dallas will continue to be without Jason Robertson, which has been a huge loss on both ends of the ice. I think the Stars will have a very fast start in this game with the crowd behind them, but Colorado put together a complete game last time out and I think they will do it again. Take the Avalanche to win.