Avalanche vs Senators Prediction 11/12/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

Avalanche vs Senators Prediction

This is a statement game for the Senators at home, as they’re playing well but still need wins against the big boys to convince themselves they’re a legit contender. I get the respect and those who want to take a shot. I’ve also said all year that the Avs are as vulnerable as they’ve been in past years, as they’ve been far more shaky than they’ve been before. However, the Avalanche are still a great team and have been finding their footing over the last week or so.

I’m all for fading the Avalanche when getting big plus money prices, but there’s value with them when the price is low. The Avalanche are still one of the best teams in the league on paper, and I’m all for grabbing pick em prices. You don’t get these chances often. The Avalanche have also won 8 of the last 10 games against the Senators, and they’ve had a field day offensively in those games. Give me the Avalanche at this soft price.

Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Red Wings and Maple Leafs, and they play the Habs next. The Avalanche have won 6 of their last 9 games. The Avalanche are 4-5-0 SU on the road, 7-1-2 SU at home, and 11-8 ATS on the season.

The Colorado Avalanche are averaging 4.11 goals per game and are scoring on 22.6 percent of their power play opportunities. Artturi Lehkonen leads the Avs with 13 goals, 5 assists, and 42 shots. Nathan MacKinnon has 10 goals, 20 assists, and 69 shots. Martin Necas has 10 goals, 14 assists, and 40 shots. Defensively, the Colorado Avalanche are allowing 3.05 goals per game and are killing 78.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Mackenzie Blackwood has given up 38 goals on 384 shots faced. Scott Wedgewood has allowed 18 goals on 135 shots.

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators beat the Mammoth, lost to the Capitals, and they play the Penguins next. The Senators have split their last 10 games. The Senators are 5-4-1 SU on the road, 6-2-1 SU at home, and 7-12 ATS on the season.

The Ottawa Senators are averaging 3.05 goals per game and are scoring on 12.7 percent of their power-play opportunities. Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 9 goals, 14 assists, and 43 shots. Drake Batherson has 9 goals, 9 assists, and 41 shots. Shane Pinto has 7 goals, 7 assists, and 36 shots. Defensively, the Ottawa Senators are allowing 3 goals per game and are killing 76.1 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Linus Ullmark has allowed 10 goals on 182 shots faced. Samuel Ersson has given up 25 goals on 217 shots. Jonas Johansson has allowed 16 goals on 105 shots.

Avalanche vs Senators Injury Report

The Senators will be without Andre Burakovsky. Warren Foegele is out with a knee injury. William Eklund is out with an ankle injury. Nick Cousins is out as well. Linus Ullmark is day-to-day with a lower-body strain.

The Avs will be without Zachary L’Heureux and Josh Manson.

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Senators have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• The Avalanche have lost six of their last nine games as road favorites.
• The Avalanche have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games as favorites following a road win.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
• The Avalanche have lost the third period in each of their last four games against Atlantic Division opponents when trailing after the second period.

Why the Colorado Avalanche will win

• The Avalanche have won each of their last three games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Avalanche have covered the puck line in each of their last three games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five Thursday night games.
• The Senators have lost the second period in four of their last five games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the last 10 night games between the Avalanche and Senators have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Avalanche’s last five games against the Senators following a road win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Avalanche’s last five road games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Avalanche and Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Shane Pinto has scored a goal in three of the Senators’ last four games as underdogs.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one assist in each of the Senators’ last seven games against Central Division opponents at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Michael Amadio has recorded 19 career blocks against the Avalanche – most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Colorado Avalanche Player Prop Facts

• Martin Necas has scored at least one goal in each of the Avalanche’s last three games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cale Makar has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Avalanche’s last eight games as favorites against the Senators.
• Nazem Kadri has scored 16 career goals against the Senators- the most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators are the only team to lose a game when leading by 3 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
• The Ottawa Senators rank T30th in the league in short-handed goals allowed this season (4).
• The Colorado Avalanche have recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of 4+ goals this season (4).
• The Colorado Avalanche have scored 5+ goals in nine games this season- the most in the NHL.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Avalanche