Flames vs Maple Leafs Prediction - NHL Picks 11/10/23

Toronto Maple Leafs (6-5-2) vs Calgary Flames (4-7-1)

Game Info: Friday, November 10, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Scotiabank Arena)

Betting Odds: Toronto Maple Leafs -162 / Calgary Flames +134 --- Over/Under: 6.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Calgary Flames will play the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Calgary has won two games in a row, while Toronto has lost five of their last six games. 

Flames Preview

The Calgary Flames are 4-7-1 this season after they defeated Nashville by a score of 4-2 in their last game. Calgary trailed 2-0 in the first period, but they scored the final four goals of the game for the win. The Flames out shot Nashville by a total of 39-18 and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Calgary won their previous game against Seattle, but they did lose the six games prior to that. The Calgary Flames offense is scoring 2.67 goals per game and they are allowing 3.50 goals against per game, while going 16.7% on the power play and 90% on the penalty kill. Elias Lindholm has led the Flames this year with two goals, six assists, and 28 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Calgary is Jacob Markstrom, who is 2-6-1 this season with a 2.91 goals against average and a .896 save percentage. 

Maple Leafs Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 6-5-2 this year after they lost to Ottawa by a score of 6-3 in their last game. Toronto tied the game at three in the third period, but they allowed the next three goals for the loss. The Maple Leafs were out shot by a total of 31-30 and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Toronto’s only win in their last six games came against Tampa Bay, in a game they trailed 4-1. The Toronto Maple Leafs are scoring 3.38 goals per game and they are allowing 3.62 goals against per game, while going 27.9% on the power play and 71.4% on the penalty kill. Auston Matthews has led the Leafs with 13 goals, six assists, and 58 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Toronto is Joseph Woll, who is 4-4-0 this year with a 2.79 goals against average and a .913 save percentage. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Facts

  • The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as favorites following a loss.
  • The Maple Leafs have lost the first period in each of their last four games as favorites following a home loss.
  • The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs' last four games as home favorites.

Calgary Flames Team Facts

  • The Flames have lost four of their last five games at Scotiabank Arena following a win.
  • The Flames have failed to cover the puck line in 10 of their last 11 night games following a home win.
  • The Flames have won the third period in each of their last three games.
  • The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the Flames' last five games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

  • John Tavares has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs' last four games against Pacific Division opponents at Scotiabank Arena.
  • William Nylander has recorded at least one point in each of the Maple Leafs' last 15 games as favorites.
  • William Nylander has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs' last seven games at Scotiabank Arena.
  • Auston Matthews ranks T1st in the league for multi-goal games (4) this season.

Calgary Flames Player Prop Facts

  • Jonathan Huberdeau has recorded at least one point in each of his last four appearances in night games at Scotiabank Arena.
  • Jonathan Huberdeau has recorded an assist in four of his last five appearances at Scotiabank Arena.
  • MacKenzie Weegar has the equal-most multi-point games for the Flames this season (2).

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs ranks 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (27.91%).
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only three teams to win a game when trailing by 2 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
  • The Calgary Flames ranks 25th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.50).
  • The Calgary Flames ranks T2nd in the league for power play goals against this season (4).

Pick

Calgary was playing like one of the worst teams in the league, but they have won two games in a row and will look to make it three here. Toronto has lost five of their last six games and they are only 3-4-0 at home this season. These two teams have very similar defensive numbers, but Toronto has had the much better offense so far this season. It is tough to trust either of these teams right now, so I am going to take the over. Calgary has gone over 6.5 goals in three of their last four, while Toronto has gone over 6.5 goals in three straight. Take the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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