Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning - 5/23/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning - 5/23/22 NHL Picks and Prediction Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Lightning (58-26-8) vs Florida Panthers (62-23-6)

Game Info: Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:00 pm (Amalie Arena)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning -111 / Florida Panthers -111 --- Over/Under: 6.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Florida Panthers in Monday NHL Second Round Action.

The Florida Panthers enter game 4 of this second-round series facing elimination, as they have dropped the first 3 games of the series. On the season, they found the net 340 times, good for a rank of 1st among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Florida is the 13th ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 2.95 goals per game. For the year, the Panthers have a strength of schedule rating of 32nd in the league. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 1st ranked team in the NHL.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are coming off a 5-1 win over the Panthers, putting the Lightning in a position to close out the series. During the regular season, the Lightning scored 287 goals, giving them an average of 3.48. This output gives them a rank of 8th among NHL teams. On defense, Tampa Bay is the 6th ranked unit, giving up 2.78 goals per contest. For the year, the Lightning played the 22nd toughest schedule in the league. And, when taking into account Tampa Bay's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 8th in the NHL.

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Through 82 games, the Florida Panthers' leading goal scorer is Aleksander Barkov. With his 49 assists, he is the second in overall points, coming in at 88. On the season, he is turning 18.2% of his shots into goals. In addition, the Panthers have benefited from the strong play of Jonathan Huberdeau, who is the team's overall leader in points. In Florida's 82 games, he has come up with 30 goals on a shooting percentage of 13.5%. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of 35. Florida's top goalie is Sergei Bobrovsky, who is giving up an average of 2.67 goals per game. In his 54 games played, he has turned in 33 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 81 games, the Tampa Bay Lightning's goal and overall scoring leader is Steven Stamkos, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 42 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.4%. So far, 38.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Victor Hedman, who has 65 assists to go along with his 20 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +26.0. Tampa Bay's top goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is giving up an average of 2.49 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 39 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Heading into game 4, the over-under betting line sits at 6.5 goals. So far, not one game in this series has surpassed this line. A key reason for the low-scoring totals is that Florida has only scored 1 goal in all 3 contests. Given that the Panthers are facing elimination, I expect a better effort out of the team. I recommend taking the over.

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Joe’s Pick Over 6.5 Goals

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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