Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs - 5/14/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs (57-23-8) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (54-26-8)

Game Info: Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:00 pm (Scotiabank Arena)

Betting Odds: Toronto Maple Leafs -123 / Tampa Bay Lightning +109 --- Over/Under: 6.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Saturday NHL Playoff Action.

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game 7 matchup vs Toronto, having picked up the home win in game 6. Through 82 games, the Lightning are 3rd in the Atlantic Division. On the season, they have found the net 287 times, good for a rank of 8th among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Tampa Bay is the 6th ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 2.78 goals per game. During the regular season, the Lightning have a strength of schedule rating of 22nd in the league. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 8th-ranked team in the NHL.

The Toronto Maple Leafs get a second chance to advance into the second round and will look to do so on their home ice. Through 82 games, the Maple Leafs have scored 315 goals, giving them an average of 3.8. This output gives them a rank of 2nd among NHL teams. On defense, Toronto is the 18th-ranked unit, giving up 3.07 goals per contest. During the regular season, the Maple Leafs have played the 31st toughest schedule in the league. And, when taking into account Toronto's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 6th in the NHL.

Through 81 games, the Tampa Bay Lightning goal and overall scoring leader is Steven Stamkos, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 42 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.4%. So far, 38.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Victor Hedman, who has 65 assists to go along with his 20 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +26.0. Tampa Bay's top goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is giving up an average of 2.49 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 39 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 73 games, the Toronto Maple Leafs' goal and overall scoring leader is Auston Matthews, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 60 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.2%. So far, 27.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Mitch Marner, who has 62 assists to go along with his 35 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +23. Toronto's top goalie is Jack Campbell, who is giving up an average of 2.64 goals per game. In his 49 games played, he has turned in 28 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

In this game 7 between Toronto and Tampa Bay, I recommend taking the over at 6.5 goals. This series continues to feature high goal totals, as game 6 was the 5th time that the Lightning and Maple Leafs scored at least 7 goals. Stick with the trend in game 7.

Joe’s Pick Over 6.5 Goals

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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