Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames - 5/11/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Calgary Flames (52-23-11) vs Dallas Stars (48-32-6)

Game Info: Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 9:30 pm (Scotiabank Saddledome)

Betting Odds: Calgary Flames -220 / Dallas Stars +180 --- Over/Under: 5.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Calgary Flames host the Dallas Stars in Wednesday NHL Playoff Action.

The Dallas Stars will look to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Calgary in game 4 of this Western Conference series. On the season, they have found the net 238 times, good for a rank of 21st among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Dallas is the 13th ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 2.98 goals per game. So far, the Stars have a strength of schedule rating of 15th in the league. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 19th-ranked team in the NHL.

The Calgary Flames get set to host the Dallas Stars, coming off an impressive 4-1. In the game, Calgary scored 3 of their 4 goals in the final period. Through 82 games, the Flames have scored 293 goals, giving them an average of 3.55. This output gives them a rank of 6th among NHL teams. On defense, Calgary is the 3rd ranked unit, giving up 2.51 goals per contest. So far, the Flames have played the 27th toughest schedule in the league. And, when taking into account Calgary's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 2nd in the NHL.

Through 82 games, the Dallas Stars' leading goal scorer is Jason Robertson. With his 38 assists, he is the second in overall points, coming in at 79. On the season, he is turning 18.6% of his shots into goals. In addition, the Stars have benefited from the strong play of Joe Pavelski, who is the team's overall leader in points. In Dallas's 82 games, he has come up with 27 goals on a shooting percentage of 12.5%. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of 11.0 Dallas's top goalie is Jake Oettinger, who is giving up an average of 2.53 goals per game. In his 48 games played, he has turned in 27 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 82 games, Calgary's leading goal scorer is Matthew Tkachuk. With his 42 goals and 62 assists, he is the second in overall points, coming in at 104. On the season, he is turning 16.6% of his shots into goals. In addition, the Flames have benefited from the strong play of Johnny Gaudreau, who is the team's overall leader in points. In Calgary's 82 games, he has come up with 40 goals on a shooting percentage of 15.3%. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus minus rating of +64. Calgary's top goalie is Jacob Markstrom, who is giving up an average of 2.22 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 38 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Coming into this game, the Stars have an over-under record of 36-44-2. When playing on the road, the over is hitting less than half the time, going 17-22-2. On the season, 46.0% of Dallas's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 51.0% of the scoring coming from the Stars. In Calgary's 82 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 40-37-5. So far, taking the over when the Flames are playing at home has been a good bet with an over-under record of 21-17-3. On the season 61.0% of Calgary's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 59.0% of the scoring coming from the Flames. So far, only one of the games in this series has surpassed 5 goals. This trend falls in line with the Flames and Stars regular season profile, as each goalie unit ranked above the league average in save percentage. I recommend sticking with the under.