Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs - 5/10/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs - 5/10/22 NHL Picks and Prediction Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs (56-23-7) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (53-25-8)

Game Info: Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:30 pm (Scotiabank Arena)

Betting Odds: Toronto Maple Leafs -127 / Tampa Bay Lightning +113 --- Over/Under: 6.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Tuesday NHL Playoff Action.

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this road contest looking to go up 3-2 in this first-round series, as they defeated Toronto 7-3 in game 4. On the season, they have found the net 287 times, good for a rank of 8th among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Tampa Bay is the 6th ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 2.78 goals per game. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 8th-ranked team in the NHL.

The Toronto Maple Leafs get set to host the Tampa Bay Lightning, looking to rebound from a tough loss in game 4. Through 82 games, the Maple Leafs have scored 315 goals, giving them an average of 3.8. This output gives them a rank of 2nd among NHL teams. On defense, Toronto is the 18th-ranked unit, giving up 3.07 goals per contest. And, when taking into account Toronto's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 6th in the NHL.

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Through 81 games, the Tampa Bay Lightning goal and overall scoring leader is Steven Stamkos, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 42 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.4%. So far, 38.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Victor Hedman, who has 65 assists to go along with his 20 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +26.0. Tampa Bay's top goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is giving up an average of 2.49 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 39 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 73 games, the Toronto Maple Leafs' goal and overall scoring leader is Auston Matthews, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 60 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.2%. So far, 27.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Mitch Marner, who has 62 assists to go along with his 35 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +23. Toronto's top goalie is Jack Campbell, who is giving up an average of 2.64 goals per game. In his 49 games played, he has turned in 28 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

In Tampa Bay's 82 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 44-38. So far, taking the over when the Lightning are playing away from home has been a good bet with an over-under record of 23-18. On the season, 56.0% of Tampa Bay's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 55% of the scoring coming from the Lightning. In Toronto's 82 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 45-31-5. So far, the team has been less likely to go over the betting line when playing at home, going just 18-20-3. On the season, 68.0% of Toronto's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 53.0% of the scoring coming from the Maple Leafs. Look for this to once again be a high-scoring game, as Tampa Bay should take advantage of a struggling Toronto goalie unit.

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Joe’s Pick Over 6.5 Goals

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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