Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning - 5/6/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning - 5/6/22 NHL Picks and Prediction Photo by John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Lightning (52-24-8) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (55-22-7)

Game Info: Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:30 pm (Amalie Arena)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning +165 / Toronto Maple Leafs +195 --- Over/Under: 6.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Friday NHL Playoff Action.

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this road contest looking to go back ahead in their series vs Tampa Bay, as they dropped game 2. with an overall record of 53-21-7. On the season, they have found the net 310 times, good for a rank of 3rd among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Toronto is the 18th-ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 3.11 goals per game. During the regular season, the Maple Leafs had a strength of schedule rating of 31st in the league. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 6th-ranked team in the NHL.

The Tampa Bay Lightning get set to host the Toronto Maple Leafs coming off a 5-3 win over Toronto in game 2. Through 81 games, the Lightning have scored 281 goals, giving them an average of 3.52. This output gives them a rank of 8th among NHL teams. On defense, Tampa Bay is the 6th ranked unit, giving up 2.81 goals per contest. For the year, the Lightning played the 22nd toughest schedule in the league. And, when taking into account Tampa Bay's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 8th in the NHL.

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Through 73 games, the Toronto Maple Leaf's goal and overall scoring leader is Auston Matthews with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 60 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.2%. So far, 27.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Mitch Marner, who has 62 assists to go along with his 35 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +23. Toronto's top goalie is Jack Campbell, who is giving up an average of 2.64 goals per game. In his 49 games played, he has turned in 28 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 81 games, the Tampa Bay Lightning's goal and overall scoring leader is Steven Stamkos, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 42 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.4%. So far, 38.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Victor Hedman, who has 65 assists to go along with his 20 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +26.0. Tampa Bay's top goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is giving up an average of 2.49 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 39 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

In Toronto's 81 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 45-31-5. So far, taking the over when the Maple Leafs are playing away from home has been a good bet with an over-under record of 27-11-2. On the season, 68.0% of Toronto's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 53.0% of the scoring coming from the Maple Leafs. In Tampa Bay's 81 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 44-38. So far, taking the over when the Lightning are playing at home has been a good bet with an over-under record of 21-20. On the season, 56.0% of Tampa Bay's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 55% of the scoring coming from the Lightning. Look for this matchup to once again surpass the over-under line of 6.5 goals, as Tampa Bay appears to have figured out Toronto's defense. I recommend taking the over.

 

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Joe’s Pick Over 6.5 Goals

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Picks & Predictions Today 6/27/22 | Ron's Rundown

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