Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs - 5/4/22 NHL Picks and Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs - 5/4/22 NHL Picks and Prediction Photo by John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs (55-21-7) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (51-24-8)

Game Info: Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 7:30 pm (Scotiabank Arena)

Betting Odds: Toronto Maple Leafs -123 / Tampa Bay Lightning +100 --- Over/Under: 1.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Wednesday NHL Action.

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this road contest with an overall record of 53-21-7. Through 81 games, the Maple Leafs are 2nd in the Atlantic Division. On the season, they have found the net 310 times, good for a rank of 3rd among NHL teams. Heading into the game, Toronto is the 18th-ranked defensive team, allowing opponents to score at an average rate of 3.11 goals per game. So far, the Maple Leafs have a strength of schedule rating of 31st in the league. When diving into their opponent-adjusted scoring margin, they come into this game as the 6th ranked team in the NHL.

The Tampa Bay Lightning get set to host the Toronto Maple Leafs with an overall record of 50-23-8. This mark places them 3rd in the Atlantic division. Through 81 games, the Lightning have scored 281 goals, giving them an average of 3.52. This output gives them a rank of 8th among NHL teams. On defense, Tampa Bay is the 6th ranked unit, giving up 2.81 goals per contest. So far, the Lightning have played the 22nd toughest schedule in the league. And, when taking into account Tampa Bay's scoring margin relative to the quality of their competition, they come in with a power ranking of 8th in the NHL.

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Through 73 games, the Toronto Maple Leaf's goal and overall scoring leader is Auston Matthews with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 60 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.2%. So far, 27.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Mitch Marner, who has 62 assists to go along with his 35 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +23. Toronto's top goalie is Jack Campbell, who is giving up an average of 2.64 goals per game. In his 49 games played, he has turned in 28 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

Through 81 games, the Tampa Bay Lightning's goal and overall scoring leader is Steven Stamkos, with 106 points. He has reached his mark of 42 goals, on a shooting percentage of 17.4%. So far, 38.0% of his goals have come during power play time. Behind him is Victor Hedman, who has 65 assists to go along with his 20 goals. While on the ice, his offensive production has led to a plus-minus rating of +26.0. Tampa Bay's top goalie is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is giving up an average of 2.49 goals per game. In his 63 games played, he has turned in 39 quality starts, giving him a quality start percentage above the league average.

In Toronto's 81 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 45-31-5. So far, taking the over when the Maple Leafs are playing away from home has been a good bet with an over-under record of 27-11-2. On the season, 68.0% of Toronto's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 53.0% of the scoring coming from the Maple Leafs. In Tampa Bay's 81 games, the over has hit in over half of their games, going 44-38. So far, taking the over when the Lightning are playing at home, has been a good bet with an over-under record of 21-20. On the season, 56.0% of Tampa Bay's games have gone for at least 6 goals or more, with 55% of the scoring coming from the Lightning. In the first meeting between the Lightning and Maple Leafs, the two teams combined for just 5 goals, as Tampa Bay failed to find the net. Look for this matchup to feature more scoring, as the Lightning won't be shut out again. I recommend the over.

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Joe’s Pick Over 5.5 Goals

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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