| MATCHUP | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Spread | -5.5 -110 | +5.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | -258 | +210 |
| Total | Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110) |
| Where | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL | |
| When | Sunday, December 28, 2025 | |
| Time | 01:00 PM EST | |
| TV | FOX | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
The Buccaneers went into their bye week at 6-2 overall with losses to only the Eagles and Lions. The wins otherwise were over the Falcons, Texans, Jets, Seahawks, 49ers and Saints. After that came a 1-5 run with a lone win over the Cardinals amid losses to the Patriots, Bills, Rams, Saints and Falcons. That would give the Bucs a 7-7 record through the first 14 games of the season.
In the matchup versus the Panthers, the Bucs scored points in every quarter—and gave up points in every quarter—along the way to a 23-20 loss. QB Baker Mayfield put up 145 yards with one TD and one pick on 18-of-26 passing and Bucky Irving led the rush with 71 yards on 19 carries. Emeka Egbuka’s 40-yard catch put him atop the receivers in the losing effort for the Bucs.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Over on the Dolphins’ side, they opened the year at just 2-7 with wins over the Jets and Falcons. The losses in that time came versus the Colts, Patriots, Bills, Panthers, Chargers, Browns and Ravens. After wins over the Bills, Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins would lose to the Steelers. That would give the team a 6-8 record in their first 14 outings.
In the Bengals matchup last weekend the Dolphins gave up points in every quarter (including 21 in the third alone) during a 45-21 loss. QB Quinn Ewers had a 20-of-30 line for 260 yards and two picks while De’Von Achane had 15 carries for 81 yards and a TD. Jaylen Waddle managed five catches for 72 yards as the team’s leading receiver in the loss.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 17
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Buccaneers have lost four of their last five December games as favorites.
- The Dolphins have won each of their last three December games as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday games.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in six of their last seven December games as home underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have lost the first half in each of their last four road games in December.
- The Buccaneers have lost the first quarter in each of their two previous games at Hard Rock Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win
- The Buccaneers have won each of their last eight games as favorites following a road loss.
- The Dolphins have lost each of their last six games as underdogs before a Division game.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games at Hard Rock Stadium before a Division game.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last four December road games against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost the first half in six of their last eight games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in six of their last eight Week 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Dolphins’ last six games at Hard Rock Stadium following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Buccaneers’ last 12 games as road favorites following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- De’Von Achane has recorded 128+ rushing yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium.
- Greg Dulcich has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last seven games.
- Jaylen Waddle has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs in Florida.
- De’Von Achane has scored the first touchdown in three of the Dolphins’ last four games against NFC opponents.
- De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last 12 Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium.
- Heading into Week 17, Jordyn Brooks has recorded the equal-most tackles in a single game this season (20 vs Commanders, Week 11).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts
- Chris Godwin has recorded 42+ receiving yards in 16 of his last 17 appearances with the Buccaneers as favorites following a road loss.
- Chris Godwin has recorded 42+ rushing and receiving yards in 16 of his last 17 appearances with the Buccaneers as favorites following a road loss.
- Bucky Irving has scored a touchdown in each of his four previous appearances with the Buccaneers as road favorites against teams that held a losing record.
- Baker Mayfield has recorded 230+ passing yards in nine of his last 10 December appearances against AFC opponents.
- Rachaad White has recorded 35+ rushing yards in eight of the Buccaneers’ last nine Sunday games.
- Baker Mayfield has recorded 24+ completions in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
- Emeka Egbuka has 445 receiving yards through his first five career games – most by any player since Puka Nacua, (2023).
Matchup/League Facts
- Dolphins – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
- Heading into Week 17, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 points per game (1.8) this season.
- Heading into Week 17, the Buccaneers rank 31st in the NFL in Q4 points per game (4.8) this season.
- Heading into Week 17, the Buccaneers rank 31st in the NFL in average points scored in fourth quarters this season (4.8).
Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Dolphins but I’m probably not touching this one. Miami couldn’t do much on offense (with no Tua) in their loss to the Bengals last weekend, posting just 19 first downs, 2-of-10 on third-down tries and three turnovers. The defense gave up 407 yards on the other side with 23 first downs, no takeaways and 6-of-12 on third downs. The Dolphins have given up a combined 73 points over their last two games (both losses), scoring 36 themselves in that pair.
As for the Bucs, they put up 296 yards with 127 pass yards, 20 first downs and 8-of-14 on third downs in their loss to Carolina. Tampa Bay gave up 275 yards on the other side with 16 first downs and no takeaways. That makes three straight losses for the Buccaneers, and six losses in the last seven games. All things considered there’s not a lot to get excited about in this one.