| MATCHUP | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 6-11 | 8-9 |
| Where | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA | |
| When | Sunday, January 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:00 PM EST | |
| TV | FOX | |
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
The New Orleans Saints beat the Titans and Jets. The New Orleans Saints have won 4 straight games. Tyler Shough is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,215 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Juwan Johnson and Chris Olave have combined for 1,991 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Rashid Shaheed has 44 receptions.
The New Orleans Saints ground game is averaging 93.4 yards per contest, and Alvin Kamara leads the way with 471 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 22.8 points and 305.5 yards per game. Demario Davis leads the New Orleans Saints with 137 tackles, Cameron Jordan has 9.5 sacks and Kool-Aid McKinstry has 3 interceptions.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons beat the Rams and Cardinals. The Atlanta Falcons have won 3 straight games. Kirk Cousins is completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,541 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Kyle Pitts and Drake London have combined for 1,711 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Bijan Robinson has 76 receptions.
The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 130.6 yards per contest, and Bijan Robinson leads the way with 1,445 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 24 points and 325.8 yards per game. Kaden Elliss leads the Atlanta Falcons with 101 tackles, James Pearce Jr. has 8.5 sacks and Xavier Watts has 5 interceptions.
Why the Atlanta Falcons will win
- The Saints have lost each of their last 14 games as underdogs without Taysom Hill.
- The Falcons have won four of their last five games against NFC opponents.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Falcons have covered the spread in each of their last four home games following a win.
- The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four home games following a win.
- The Falcons have won the first half in nine of their last 10 January games as favorites against NFC opponents.
Why the New Orleans Saints will win
- The Falcons have lost each of their last six games against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Saints have won each of their last four games as road underdogs following a road win.
- The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against NFC South opponents.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against starting rookie QBs.
- The Falcons have lost the first half in two of their last three games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Falcons’ last six games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Saints’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Three of the last four Sunday games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
- Bijan Robinson has recorded 51+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last three games as favorites following a win.
- Bijan Robinson has recorded 168+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Falcons’ last five games.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 225+ passing yards in each of his six previous January appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 21+ completions in 16 of his last 19 appearances with his team as a home favorite.
- Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Tyler Allgeier has recorded 44+ rushing yards in five of the Falcons’ last six games against the Saints.
- Heading into Week 18, Bijan Robinson has recorded the longest rush of the season (93 yards vs Rams, Week 17).
New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts
- Taysom Hill has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last five road appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Taysom Hill has recorded 24+ rushing yards in six of the Saints’ last seven games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- Heading into Week 18, Chase Young ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 18, the Falcons have played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
- Falcons – only team with 3+ players to record 800+ receiving yards this season (Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson), heading into Week 18.
- Saints – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
- Heading into Week 18, the Saints rank 32nd in the NFL in 4th down percentage (35.5%) this season.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction
The Falcons clearly want to finish the season on a high note, as we saw in a motivated win over the Rams. On paper, the Falcons are the more talented team. There’s also motivation on both sides, as the outcome of this game determines if the Panthers or Bucs go to the playoffs. With all of that said, we’re getting points with a Saints side that’s won 4 straight games and has covered 5 straight games. The underdog is also 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games between the Falcons and Saints. Four of those covers were outright victories. The hook could be key here. Give me the points with the Saints.