New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 10/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Andrew Jett

2 hours ago

Bills quarterback Josh Allen and the rest of the team wore their new Nickel City uniforms in their game against the Chargers Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.

MATCHUP	New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills
Team Records	1-2	3-0
Spread	+7 -115	-7 -105
Moneyline	+240	-298
Total	Over 48.5 (-115)	Under 48.5 (-105)
Where	Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
When	Sunday, October 4, 2026
Time	01:00 PM EDT
TV	CBS

The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Patriots vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Patriots vs Bills pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The Patriots kicked off the season with a tough game versus the Seattle Seahawks on the road. New England was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and lost that one 13-10 in the end. As for game two the Pats played the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. New England scored points in every quarter there, ultimately winning 20-3 as the game finished up.

Last weekend versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Patriots could only manage a field goal in the first half and went into the locker room down 14-3. New England gave up three more touchdowns after the break and lost big 35-6. QB Drake Maye was 14-of-25 for 199 yards and a pair of interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson had eight carries for 23 yards.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Over on the Buffalo side, they kicked things off with a tricky matchup versus the Houston Texans on the road. The Bills were able to score points in every quarter (including 21 in the second) on the way to a 36-31 victory. As for game two, Buffalo took on the Detroit Lions in a home matchup. The Bills were up 27-10 by the end of the first half and eventually emerged victorious 41-31.

Matched up against the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend the Bills were down 10-0 early but managed to even things up by the break. Buffalo outscored LA 14-3 in the fourth quarter to finish off a 24-16 victory. QB Josh Allen had a 16-of-26 line for 204 yards and two picks but scored twice on the ground. James Cook added 24 carries for 154 yards and a TD as the team’s leading rusher.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

The Bills have won 14 of their last 15 home games against AFC East opponents.
The Patriots have lost five of their last six Week 4 games.
The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games as favorites.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
The Patriots have lost the first half in nine of their last 12 Week 4 games against AFC East opponents.

Why the New England Patriots will win

The Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 October games against the Bills.
The Bills have lost four of their last five games without Dawson Knox.
The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 October games against AFC East opponents.
The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last six October games against AFC opponents.
The Bills have lost the first half in four of their last five October games as favorites against AFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

Seven of the Bills’ last eight home games without Dawson Knox have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Patriots’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Sixteen of the last 21 games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five regular season games.
Josh Allen has recorded 249+ passing yards in five of the Bills’ last six October games against AFC East opponents.
Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Bills’ last seven home games.
Keon Coleman has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of his 13 previous regular season appearances with the Bills as home favorites.
James Cook has recorded 117+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last three games following a win.
D.J. Moore has recorded 64+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Bills’ last six October games against AFC East opponents.
Heading into Week 4, Josh Allen ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (6) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC East opponents.
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Patriots’ last three October games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in five of the Patriots’ last six Sunday games as road underdogs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 54+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
Romeo Doubs has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 43+ rushing yards in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games against AFC opponents.
Drake Maye has recorded 22 completions in three of the Patriots’ last four games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Heading into Week 4, Drake Maye has thrown the most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Seahawks, Week 1).

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 4, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in points per game (33.7) this season.
Heading into Week 4, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in 1st downs (76) this season.
Heading into Week 4, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in H2 points per game (5.3) this season.
Heading into Week 4, the Patriots rank T1st in the NFL in average points against in first quarters this season (0.0).

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

I’ll stick with the Patriots, but they need a good performance here. New England limped to 317 total yards, 17 first downs, three turnovers and 4-of-12 on third-down tries in their loss to the Jaguars. The nine penalties didn’t help either. On defense the Pats gave up 315 yards with 23 first downs and an ugly 8-of-12 on third downs. It wasn’t exactly a Super-Bowl-caliber performance.

As for the Bills, they made a lot of mistakes in their eight-point win over the Chargers, namely the 10 penalties for 88 yards and the five turnovers (three lost fumbles). Buffalo threw for a paltry 174 yards as well. The defense gave up 20 first downs and held the Chargers to 6-of-15 on third-down tries. It was one of those “resiliency wins” that look pretty ugly on paper. Buffalo is in for another tough one this weekend, even with the Pats struggling in the record column.