![New England receiver Nelson Agholor , being brought down by Raven defender Kyle Hamilton, watches as his fumbled ball bounces away after a 28yard, 4th quarter run. The ball was recovered by the Ravens and ended Patriots chances of a comeback win. [The Providence Journal / Kris Craig]](https://pickdawgz.com/tachyon/2025/12/19894006.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024)
| MATCHUP | New England Patriots | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Spread | +3 -115 | -3 -105 |
| Moneyline | +136 | -162 |
| Total | Over 48.5 (-105) | Under 48.5 (-115) |
| Where | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD | |
| When | Sunday, December 21, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:20 PM EST | |
| TV | NBC | |
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Baltimore Ravens have a 7-7 record this season and are sitting second in the AFC North. They are 5-9 ATS, 8-6 in Over/Under and have a 3-5 home record and a 4-2 away record. The Ravens are coming off a 24-0 away win against the Cincinnati Bengals and will face the Packers and Steelers next.
Offensively, the Ravens average 23.9 points per game, ranking 14th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 22.9 points per game, which is 15th. Baltimore averages 324.6 total yards per game (178.4 passing and 146.2 rushing), while allowing 344.4 total yards per game (111.1 rushing and 233.3 passing).
Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens with 2210 passing yards with 63.5% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. Derrick Henry leads the team in rushing yards with 1125, while Zay Flowers has a team-high 71 receptions for 959 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Defensively, Roquan Smith has a team-high 114 total tackles (66 of them solo), while Tavius Robinson leads the team in sacks, with 3, while Nate Wiggins has a team-high 3 interceptions.
New England Patriots Preview
The New England Patriots have a 11-3 record this season and are sitting first in the AFC East. They are 8-6 ATS, 8-6 in Over/Under and have a 5-3 home record and a 6-0 away record. The Patriots are coming off a 31-35 home loss against the Buffalo Bills and will face the Jets and Dolphins next.
Offensively, the Patriots average 27.3 points per game, ranking 7th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 19.7 points per game, which is 7th. New England averages 364.2 total yards per game (241.8 passing and 122.4 rushing), while allowing 300.1 total yards per game (95.1 rushing and 205.1 passing).
Drake Maye leads the Patriots with 3567 passing yards with 70.9% completed passes and 23 touchdowns. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team in rushing yards with 773, while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 67 receptions for 731 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Defensively, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles (48 of them solo), while Harold Landry leads the team in sacks, with 8.5, while Marcus Jones has a team-high 3 interceptions.
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends: Week 16
Why the Baltimore Ravens will win
- The Ravens have won eight of their last nine Week 16 home games.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last five December games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs without Anfernee Jennings.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last four Week 16 games as favorites.
- The Ravens have won the first quarter in five of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Ravens have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five Week 16 games.
- The Ravens have won the first half in 10 of their last 11 home games against AFC East opponents.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their last six road games.
- The Ravens have lost each of their last three games as favorites without Kyle Van Noy.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson.
- The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six road games against AFC North opponents.
- The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 11 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Ravens’ last six home games without Rashod Bateman have gone UNDER the total points line.
Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts
- Derrick Henry has scored two or more touchdowns in each of his last four home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Derrick Henry has recorded 82+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine December home appearances.
- Lamar Jackson has recorded 219+ passing yards in 10 of his last 12 Sunday home appearances.
- Lamar Jackson has recorded 18+ completions in four of the Ravens’ last five December home games.
- Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his seven previous home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 52+ receiving yards in each of his nine previous appearances against the Patriots.
- Zay Flowers has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Ravens’ last nine Sunday games as favorites.
- Heading into Week 16, Derrick Henry is the only player to have recorded 1000+ rushing yards in each of the last four seasons. (including 2025).
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four games played on the East Coast.
- Drake Maye has recorded 259+ passing yards in six of the Patriots’ last seven games.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last five games.
- Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four games.
- Austin Hooper has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last 17 December road appearances.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 81+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
- Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Heading into Week 16, Drake Maye has the highest completion percentage in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (91.3% vs Titans, Week 7).
Matchup/League Facts
- Ravens – five different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 16.
- Ravens – four different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 16.
- Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 16.
- Patriots – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 16.
Patriots vs Ravens Prediction
In this Patriots vs Ravens Prediction, the Ravens are coming as -3-point home favorites. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, as the Patriots have four more overall wins than the Ravens and have been undefeated on the road this season. The Ravens are 1-2 in their last 3 games and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5, while on the other hand, the Patriots have been red-hot, with a 10-1 record in their last 11 games. The Patriots have been better both offensively and defensively, with a +7.6 point differential and I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Patriots and get the +3 points in this one.