| MATCHUP | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 7-10 | 14-3 |
| Where | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA | |
| When | Sunday, January 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:25 PM EST | |
| TV | FOX | |
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Miami Dolphins beat the Buccaneers and lost to the Bengals. The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 7 games. Quinn Ewers is completing 65 percent of his passes for 485 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane have combined for 1,398 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Malik Washington has 43 receptions.
The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 123.8 yards per contest, and De’Von Achane leads the way with 1,350 yards and 8 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 24.1 points and 342 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Miami Dolphins with 174 tackles, Bradley Chubb has 8.5 sacks and Rasul Douglas has 2 interceptions.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
The New England Patriots beat the Ravens and Jets. The New England Patriots have won 10 of their last 11 games. Drake Maye is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry have combined for 1,682 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Mack Hollins has 46 receptions.
The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 121.8 yards per contest, and TreVeyon Henderson leads the way with 858 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 19.4 points and 302.4 yards per game. Robert Spillane leads the New England Patriots with 97 tackles, Harold Landry III has 8.5 sacks and Marcus Jones has 3 interceptions.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their 13 previous games at Gillette Stadium against starting rookie QBs.
- The Dolphins have lost 17 of their last 18 road games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games as road underdogs following a win.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six home games against starting rookie QBs.
- The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in four of their last five January road games against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last nine games as road underdogs following a home win.
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Dolphins have won three of their last four Sunday games as underdogs.
- The Patriots have lost four of their last five home games without Anfernee Jennings.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 Sunday games against the Patriots.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six January games against AFC East opponents.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Patriots’ last two Week 18 games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Patriots’ last eight Sunday games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the last 11 Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in each of the Patriots’ last two home games against the Dolphins.
- Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites following a win.
- Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four games as favorites following a win.
- Drake Maye has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six Sunday games as favorites.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 12+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight Sunday home appearances.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last eight games following a win.
- Heading into Week 18, Drake Maye has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (5 vs Jets, Week 17).
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Malik Washington has scored a touchdown in three of the Dolphins’ last four Sunday games as underdogs.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 315+ passing yards in each of his last three appearances against the Patriots.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of his three previous appearances against the Patriots.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in three of his last four appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs following a win.
- Heading into Week 18, Malik Washington ranks 7th in the NFL in kick return yards (911) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Patriots – five different players have recorded 100+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
- Heading into Week 18, the Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (17.3 yards) this season.
- Dolphins – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
- Heading into Week 18, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 points per game (1.7) this season.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction
The Dolphins are still playing hard for coach McDaniel, and we’ve seen Ewers get more and more comfortable at quarterback. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Dolphins hang around in this spot. I just can’t step in front of the Patriots, a team that’s fifth in scoring offense and scoring defense. The Patriots have been beating teams silly all year, and they’re 10-6 ATS on the season. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a double-digit favorite. Two of those wins came this year and were decided by an average of 22.5 points. I’m rolling with the Patriots in a blowout home win, simply because they’re the more consistent side.