Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prediction NFL Picks 12/29/24

David Racey

11 months ago

Cleveland Browns (3-12) vs Miami Dolphins (7-8)

Game Info: Sunday, December 29, 2024 at 4:05 pm (Huntington Bank Field)

The Line: Betting Odds: Cleveland Browns +6.5 / Miami Dolphins -6.5 — Over/Under: 39.5

In this article, we will formulate a Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, December 29th at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 17 matchup.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 7-8 this season after they defeated San Francisco by a score of 29-17 in their last game. Miami led 13-10 at halftime and 19-17 in the fourth quarter, before pulling away for the win. The Dolphins outgained San Francisco by a total of 381-374, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 4-12 on third down in the game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 215 yards and one touchdown, while De’Von Achane rushed for 120 yards and one score.

Prior to that victory, the Dolphins lost to Houston by a score of 20-12 but did beat the Jets by a score of 32-26 before that. The Miami offense has scored 20.3 points per game with 222.1 passing yards and 105.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.9 points per game this season. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 72.9% of his passes for 2,867 yards, 19 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while De’Von Achane has rushed for 761 yards and five scores this year.

Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

The Cleveland Browns are 3-12 this year after they lost to Cincinnati by a score of 24-6 in their last game. Cleveland cut the deficit to 17-6 in the third quarter, but couldn’t find any more points in the loss. The Browns were outgained by a total of 326-273, lost the turnover battle 3-1, and went 3-12 on third down in the game. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 157 yards and two interceptions, while Jerome Ford rushed for 92 yards and one score in the loss.

Prior to that game, the Browns lost three games in a row against the Chiefs, Steelers, and Broncos. The Cleveland offense has scored 16.3 points per game with 211.3 passing yards and 95.9 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 25.3 points per game this season. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has completed 51.5% of his passes for 257 yards and five interceptions, while Jerry Jeudy has caught 72 passes for 1,072 yards and four scores this year.

Why the Dolphins will beat the Browns

The Dolphins have won 16 of their last 17 Sunday games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Browns have lost each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six December games as underdogs.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in 13 of their last 15 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
The Dolphins have won the first half in seven of their last eight Sunday games.
The Dolphins have won the first quarter in six of their last eight games in December.

Total Points Facts

Seven of the Browns’ last eight games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Dolphins’ last four games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.

Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts

Jameis Winston has recorded 18+ rushing yards in three of his four previous Week 17 home appearances.
David Njoku has scored a touchdown in each of his last three appearances in home day games against teams with a losing record.
Jerome Ford has recorded 82+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Browns’ last four December home games.
David Njoku has recorded 42+ receiving yards in each of his last six December appearances against AFC opponents.
Jameis Winston has recorded 24+ completions in three of his last four Sunday appearances with the Browns as underdogs.
Heading into Week 17, Denzel Ward ranks 1st in the league for passes defensed (19) this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last five day games against teams with a losing record.
Raheem Mostert has recorded 30+ rushing and receiving yards in 17 of his last 18 December appearances.
Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances with the Dolphins as favorites against AFC opponents.
Raheem Mostert has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against AFC North opponents.
Raheem Mostert has recorded 30+ rushing yards in 17 of his last 18 December appearances.
Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 28+ completions in each of the Dolphins’ last four games following a win.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three touchdowns in each of the Dolphins’ last two road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Heading into Week 17, De’Von Achane is one of only two players in the NFL to record 500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 17, the Browns rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (28.4%) this season.
Heading into Week 17, the Browns rank 32nd in the NFL in Q2 points per game (3.4) this season.
Heading into Week 17, the Dolphins rank 4th in the NFL in time of possession per game (31:54) this season.
Heading into Week 17, the Dolphins have scored the last touchdown in four consecutive games – the longest streak in the league.