| MATCHUP | Los Angeles Chargers | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Spread | +3.5 -112 | -3.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +154 | -185 |
| Total | Over 45.5 (-115) | Under 45.5 (-105) |
| Where | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA | |
| When | Sunday, January 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EST | |
| TV | NBC | |
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
The Chargers headed into their bye week this year with a 7-4 overall record. LA took out Kansas City, Las Vegas, Denver, Miami, Minnesota, Tennessee and Pittsburgh during that time. A four-game win streak ensued after the open weekend as LA took out the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys. Since then it’s been consecutive losses to the Texans and Broncos though, giving Los Angeles an 11-6 overall record through the regular season.
In the Denver game on Sunday, the Chargers entered the second half facing a 10-3 deficit. That’s as close as Los Angeles would get, as they’d be o outscored 9-0 the rest of the way in a 19-3 defeat. QB Trey Lance had a 20-of-44 line for 136 yards and a pick while also leading the rush with nine carries for 69 yards. Tops in receiving was Keenan Allen with seven grabs for 36 yards in the loss.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Over on the Patriots’ side, they opened the year with losses in two of their first three games versus the Raiders and Steelers. Since then New England has only one loss (versus Buffalo on December 14). Otherwise it’s been wins over the Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Bengals, Giants, Ravens, Jets and Dolphins in succession. That gives the Patriots a nice 14-3 overall record in the regular season.
In the Dolphins game on Sunday, the Patriots entered the second half with a seven-point lead 17-10. New England ended up scoring in every quarter though, putting up 21 more unanswered points in a 38-10 win. The Patriots’ Drake Maye finished with 191 yards and a TD while Rhamondre Stevenson had 131 yards and two scores on seven carries. Hunter Henry was tops in receiving with five catches for 56 yards in the victory effort.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Wild Card Round
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
- The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games at Gillette Stadium.
- The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Khalil Mack.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chargers have lost the first half in each of their last five games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Why the Los Angeles Chargers will win
- The Chargers have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
- The Patriots have lost three of their last four games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs without Trey Lance.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at Gillette Stadium following a home win.
- The Patriots have lost the first half in four of their last five home games against AFC West opponents.
- The Patriots have lost the first quarter in each of their last three Wild Card Round games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Patriots’ last nine Sunday games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Chargers’ last nine Sunday games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the last 12 Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four home games.
- Kayshon Boutte has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Patriots’ last five games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in six of the Patriots’ last seven games as favorites following a win.
- Hunter Henry has recorded 45+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last five games.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 53+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven games as favorites.
- Drake Maye has recorded a 110.0+ passer rating in two consecutive games (including playoffs) – equal-longest streak in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts
- Quentin Johnston has scored a touchdown in four of his last five road appearances.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 22+ completions in five of his last six appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 242+ passing yards in each of his six previous January road appearances.
- Keenan Allen has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 appearances with the Chargers as underdogs on the East Coast.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 32+ rushing yards in three of his last four appearances with the Chargers as underdogs.
- Ladd McConkey has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his 11 previous road appearances against AFC opponents.
- Heading into the Wild Card Round, Omarion Hampton ranks 1st in the AFC amongst qualified players for catch rate (91.4%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Patriots – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
- Patriots – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
- Chargers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
- Chargers – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
Chargers vs Patriots Prediction
I’ll stick with the Patriots. New England is chugging along nicely these days and coming off another win versus Miami. In that one the Pats posted 457 total yards, 243 rush yards, 8.2 yards per play and a 5-of-10 success rate on third downs. That gives New England 28 or more points in each of the last five games (a 4-1 run) and 23 or more points in 14 straight outings. The Patriots average 28.8 points per game this year and they’re allowing just 18.8 on the other side.
As for the Chargers, they couldn’t get much going against Denver in their last outing. Los Angeles mustered just 217 yards with 13 first downs and 3.1 yards per play alongside 7-of-20 on third downs and two turnovers. That makes consecutive losses to Houston and Denver, and LA has scored 16 or fewer points in three of the last four games (a 2-2 record). I don’t see them sticking with the Patriots at Gillette.