Lions vs Bears Prediction 1/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

David Racey

14 hours ago

Dec 28, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the second half at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears
Team Records	8-8	11-5
Spread	+3 -118	-3 -102
Moneyline	+124	-148
Total	Over 50.5 (-110)	Under 50.5 (-110)
Where	Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
When	Sunday, January 4, 2026
Time	04:25 PM EST
TV	FOX

In this article we will formulate a Lions vs Bears prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 4th at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 18 matchup.

Detroit Lions Betting Preview

The Detroit Lions are 8-8 this season after they lost to Minnesota by a score of 23-10 in their last game. Detroit tied the game at seven in the second quarter, but they allowed 16 of the last 19 points for the very disappointing loss. The Lions out gained Minnesota by a total of 231-161, went 5-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 6-0 in the game. Jared Goff went 18-29 for 197 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed 17 times for 41 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the receivers with eight catches for 68 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Detroit lost to the Steelers by a score of 29-24 and the Rams by a score of 41-34. The Lions have lost three games in a row and they are currently last in the NFC North standings. Detroit has scored 28.9 points per game with 249.5 passing yards and 119.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.8 points against per game this season. Jared Goff has thrown for 4,233 yards, 33 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 106 passes for 1,262 yards and 11 scores this season.

Chicago Bears Betting Preview

The Chicago Bears are 11-5 this year after they lost to San Francisco by a score of 42-38 in their last game. Chicago trailed 28-21 at halftime and they led 38-35 in the fourth, but allowed a late score and got stopped in the red zone for the loss. The Bears were out gained by a total of 496-440, went 6-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Caleb Williams went 25-42 for 330 yards and two touchdowns, while D’Andre Swift rushed nine times for 54 yards and two scores. Luther Burden III led the receivers with eight catches for 138 yards and one touchdown in the loss.

Prior to that game, Chicago defeated the Packers by a score of 22-16 and the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Bears have won two of their last three games and they have clinched first in the NFC North standings. Chicago has scored 26.6 points per game with 226.3 passing yards and 149.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.8 points against per game this season. Caleb Williams has thrown for 3,730 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while D’Andre Swift has rushed for 1,047 yards and nine scores on 213 carries this year.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

The Bears have won each of their last six games at Soldier Field.
The Lions have lost each of their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Lions have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Sunday games.
The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
The Lions have lost the first half in each of their last four games at Soldier Field following a road loss.
The Lions have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games against NFC North opponents.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Lions’ last nine games without Kalif Raymond have gone OVER the total points line.
Five of the Bears’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five Sunday games at Soldier Field have gone UNDER the total points line.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

D.J. Moore has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bears’ last four home games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
Caleb Williams has recorded 239+ passing yards in four of the Bears’ last five games as favorites.
D’Andre Swift has recorded 58+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
D.J. Moore has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his eight previous appearances against the Lions.
D’Andre Swift has scored the last touchdown in each of his three previous January home appearances against NFC North opponents.
D’Andre Swift has recorded 13+ receiving yards in 20 of his last 21 appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Heading into Week 18, Kevin Byard has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Raiders, Week 4).

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

Jared Goff has recorded 279+ passing yards in five of the Lions’ last six Sunday games.
Jared Goff has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Lions’ last seven January games against NFC opponents.
Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last six January games.
Jahmyr Gibbs has scored the last touchdown in three of the Lions’ last four games following a loss.
David Montgomery has recorded 12+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 road appearances against NFC North opponents.
David Montgomery has recorded 37+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances at Soldier Field.
David Montgomery has recorded 61+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine road appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Heading into Week 18, Jared Goff is the only player to have recorded 4000+ passing yards in each of the last four seasons. (including 2025).

Matchup/League Facts

Bears – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Heading into Week 18, the Bears rank 1st in the NFL in interceptions (22) this season.
Lions – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Heading into Week 18, the Lions have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points this season (4).

Lions vs Bears Prediction

These two teams come into this matchup trending in different directions and I think we could see another sloppy performance from Detroit. The Lions had a very disappointing season, they are dealing with a lot of injuries, and they can’t protect the quarterback, while Chicago is trying to clinch the second seed in the NFC. The Bears are also dealing with some key injuries, but their offense is rolling right now. I also don’t love when Goff has to play outside in cold temperatures, as we have seen him play very poorly when doing so. Take the Bears to cover at home.

David Racey is 109-88 (55%) in the NFL this season and is one of the top NFL cappers on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!