Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction 11/9/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

7 hours ago

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington (11), right, hauls in a reception against Houston Texans linebacker Azzez Al-Shaair (0) and linebacker Henry To'Oto'O (39), bottom, during the first quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10.

MATCHUP	Jaguars Jacksonville	Texans Houston
Team Records	5-3	3-5
Spread	+1.5 -112	-1.5 -108
Moneyline	+105	-125
Total	Over 38.5 (-105)	Under 38.5 (-115)
Where	NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
When	Sunday, November 9, 2025
Time	01:00 PM EST
TV	CBS

In this article, we will formulate a Jaguars vs Texans Prediction for this NFL Week 10 game on Sunday, November 9th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 3-5 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC South. They are 3-5 ATS, 2-5 in Over/Under and have a 2-2 home record and a 1-3 away record. The Texans are coming off a 15-18 home loss against the Denver Broncos and will face the Titans and Bills next.

Offensively, the Texans average 21 points per game, ranking 24th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 15.1 points per game, which is 1st. Houston averages 321.1 total yards per game (212.3 passing and 108.9 rushing), while allowing 267.4 total yards per game (89.9 rushing and 177.5 passing).

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 1702 passing yards with 66.5% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Nick Chubb leads the team in rushing yards with 355, while Nico Collins has a team-high 33 receptions for 414 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 51 total tackles (26 of them solo), while Will Anderson leads the team in sacks, with 6.0. Calen Bullock, Kamari Lassiter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre each have two interceptions.

Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 5-3 record this season and are sitting second in the AFC South. They are 4-3 ATS, 4-4 in Over/Under and have a 3-2 home record and a 2-1 away record. The Jaguars are coming off a 30-29 away win against the Las Vegas Raiders and will face the Texans, Chargers and Cardinals next.

Offensively, the Jaguars average 22 points per game, ranking 21st in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 23 points per game, which is 17th. Jacksonville averages 338.9 total yards per game (215.3 passing and 123.6 rushing), while allowing 336.1 total yards per game (86.9 rushing and 249.3 passing).

Trevor Lawrence leads the Jaguars with 1840 passing yards with 59.7% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Travis Etienne leads the team in rushing yards with 598, while Brian Thomas has a team-high 30 receptions for 420 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Defensively, Foyesade Oluokun has a team-high 66 total tackles (34 of them solo), while Arik Armstead leads the team in sacks, with 3.5. Foyesade Oluokun, Andrew Wingard, Jourdan Lewis, Eric Murray, Devin Lloyd, Montaric Brown and Antonio Johnson each have one interception.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Betting Trends: Week 10

Why the Houston Texans will win

The Jaguars have lost each of their last 11 November games as road underdogs.
The Texans have won each of their last eight games as home favorites following a home loss.
The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as home favorites following a home loss.
The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs following a road win.
The Jaguars have lost the first half in each of their last eight November games as road underdogs.
The Texans have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
The Texans have won the first quarter in five of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

The Texans have lost four of their last five games as favorites before a Division game.
The Jaguars have won each of their last four November games against AFC opponents.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six November games as home favorites.
The Texans have lost the first quarter in four of their last five November games as home favorites.
The Jaguars have won the first half in three of their last four road games after coming off overtime.
The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five road games against the Texans.

Total Points Facts

Nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the Texans’ last eight home games against the Jaguars have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

Nick Chubb has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
C.J. Stroud has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of the Texans’ last seven games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
Nick Chubb has recorded 41+ rushing yards in each of his last 24 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his six previous appearances against the Jaguars.
Nico Collins has recorded 79+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous appearances with the Texans as favorites against AFC South opponents.
C.J. Stroud has recorded 22+ completions in eight of the Texans’ last nine games as favorites following a loss.
Heading into Week 10, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks 1st in the NFL in made field goals (22) this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

Jordan Akins has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road underdog against AFC South opponents.
Travis Etienne has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Jaguars’ last six road games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Trevor Lawrence has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four November appearances.
Trevor Lawrence has recorded 235+ passing yards in five of the Jaguars’ last six November games against AFC opponents.
Travis Etienne has recorded 71+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last three road games.
Trevor Lawrence has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four November appearances.
Trevor Lawrence has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Jaguars’ last six November games against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 10, Devin Lloyd ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 10, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (15.1) this season.
Heading into Week 10, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (267.4) this season.
Heading into Week 10, the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks (10.0) this season.
Heading into Week 10, the Jaguars rank 2nd in the NFL in interceptions (11) this season.

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction

The Texans are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Jaguars but the Jaguars are 2-1 in their last 3 visits in Houston. Under is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, the Texans are coming as -1-point home favorites, with the total set at 38 points. Both teams have been unstable lately as they both are 1-2 in their last three games and both have weak offenses, scoring 43 points combined, but still the total of 38 points feels too low. The Texans have the best defense in the league, but they are still 3-1 over that number in their last 4 games. This is a very low total, so go over that number