Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction 10/11/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet Sunday in NFL action from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Here’s a Colts vs Steelers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Colts vs Steelers pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Colts kicked off their season with a couple of losses but they were at least competitive in one of them. Indianapolis got beaten pretty badly 41-23 by the Baltimore Ravens in their opener, but then pushed the Kansas City Chiefs to the limit in a 33-30 overtime defeat for game two. Indy’s first win of the year came in game three versus the Houston Texans 19-17.

In last weekend’s game versus the Washington Commanders, the Colts were down after the first quarter but went into the break with a 10-6 edge. After scoring 10 points in the final quarter Indy finished off a nice 30-13 road victory. QB Daniel Jones was 19-of-34 for 143 yards and a pick. Jonathan Taylor led the rush with 20 carries for 95 yards and two scores.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

Over on the Steelers’ side, they’ve gone through quite a few ups and downs already during the young season. Pittsburgh kicked things off with a 20-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons in the opener, then fell 20-3 in a road game versus New England. The Steelers were able to get to 2-1 through three games after a 30-27 win over the rival Cincinnati Bengals on September 27.

Matched up against the Cleveland Browns last Thursday, Pittsburgh fell back into the loss column. The Steelers had the game tied up 24-24 with just 1:42 left but then gave up a game-winning field goal for a loss 27-24. QB Aaron Rodgers was 22-of-40 for 299 yards, three scores and two picks. Jaylen Warren led the rush with 17 carries for 93 yards in the defeat.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• The Colts have lost nine of their last 10 road games against AFC North opponents.
• The Steelers have won each of their last five home games against the Colts.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last five games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games without Andrew Ogletree.
• The Colts have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games.
• The Colts have lost the first half in three of their last four Week 5 road games.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won seven of their last eight games in October.
• The Steelers have lost each of their last two games as favorites without Jaylen Warren.
• The Colts have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 October games against AFC opponents.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games as favorites without Cameron Heyward.
• The Colts have won the first half in five of their last six games following a win.
• The Steelers have lost the first quarter in three of their last four October games as favorites against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Steelers’ last five games without Cameron Heyward have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Colts’ last six games against AFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• D.K. Metcalf has scored at least one touchdown in four of his five previous Week 5 appearances.
• Rico Dowdle has recorded 46+ rushing yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Rico Dowdle has recorded 52+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight regular season appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 233+ passing yards in 16 of his last 17 October appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• Darnell Washington has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his last six home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in 11 of his last 12 appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times this season – equal-most in the league.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight appearances against AFC North opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 94+ rushing yards in six of his last seven October appearances.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 120+ rushing and receiving yards in three of his last four appearances with the Colts as underdogs against AFC North opponents.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 264+ passing yards in each of his three previous appearances against the Steelers.
• Darius Slayton has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances against AFC opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in each of the Colts’ last three October games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in each of the Colts’ last three October games.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last four road appearances against AFC North opponents.
• Heading into Week 5, Spencer Shrader ranks 1st in the AFC for made field goals (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 5, the Steelers have won the first quarter in each of their last two games – equal-longest active streak in the league.
• Heading into Week 5, the Steelers rank 2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (7) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Colts rank 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (392.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Colts rank 2nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (51.7) this season.

Colts vs Steelers Prediction

I’ll lean Steelers but it’s close. Pittsburgh gave up some inopportune plays during their loss to Cleveland last Thursday and couldn’t take advantage of the Browns’ whopping 14 penalties for 88 yards. The Steelers had eight flags (for 50 yards) themselves, while giving up 372 yards on defense and gaining 361 on offense. It could have been a good road win, had a couple of things broken the other way.

As for the Colts, they got back to .500 last weekend following a pretty solid win over the Commanders on the road. Indianapolis posted 17 first downs and 257 total yards, but only 129 of those came via the pass. On defense the Colts gave up just 12 first downs and a 2-of-15 success rate on third downs. If Indy plays well here it’s a very winnable road matchup.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5