Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 9/20/2026 Today’s NFL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 14, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) warms up prior to a game against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
Team Records
0-1
1-0
Spread
+6 -108
-6 -112
Moneyline
+230
-285
Total
Over 46.5 (-105)
Under 46.5 (-115)
Where
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
When
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Time
08:20 PM EDT
TV
NBC
The Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in week 2 NFL action from Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs prediction.
Indianapolis Colts Recap
The Indianapolis Colts come into this game looking to bounce back from a 41-23 loss at the hands of Baltimore last time out to sit at 1-0 this season. After this game, Indianapolis will head home for a game against the Houston Texans.
Colts Looking To Bounce Back
Daniel Jones has thrown for 166 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception on 61.3% passing while Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts in rushing with 98 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. Jones sits behind Taylor on the ground with 4 yards and 0 TDs. Alec Pierce leads Indianapolis in receiving with 61 yards on 4 catches, while Josh Downs trails with 37 yards on 2 catches, and Tyler Warren pulled in the team’s lone receiving touchdown. On defense, Akeem Davis-Gaither has a team-high 8 total tackles, while Laiatu Latu, Arden Key, DeForest Buckner, and Grover Stewart each split a sack (0.5 apiece). Indianapolis’s defense as a whole has combined for 2 sacks and 0 interceptions so far this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Recap
The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game looking to add on to their 31-10 win over Denver last time out to improve to 1-0 on the year. After this game, Kansas City will head on the road for a game against the Miami Dolphins.
Chiefs Looking To Add On Big Division Win
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception on 55.6% passing while Kenneth Walker III leads the Chiefs in rushing with 173 rushing yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Emmett Johnson sits behind Walker III on the ground with 24 yards and 0 TDs. Travis Kelce leads Kansas City in receiving with 71 yards on 3 catches. On defense, L’Jarius Sneed has a team-high 8 total tackles while Nohl Williams, R Mason Thomas, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah lead the team with 1 sack each. Kansas City’s defense as a whole has combined for 4 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 2
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Colts have lost each of their last eight games.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last five home games following a win.
The Colts have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
The Colts have won the first quarter in five of their last seven games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 12 games as home favorites.
The home team has won the first half in each of the Chiefs’ last five games.
Why the Indianapolis Colts will win
The Chiefs have lost each of their last four Sunday games as favorites.
The underdogs have won each of the Colts’ last four Week 2 games.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Sunday games.
The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 2 games as underdogs.
The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last six games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 12 games as road underdogs.
The Chiefs have lost the first half in four of their last five games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Total Points Facts
Each of the Chiefs’ last 10 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Colts’ last five games as underdogs against the Chiefs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the last five Sunday games at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
Kenneth Walker III has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four September appearances with his team as a home favorite.
Xavier Worthy has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six games against AFC South opponents.
Kenneth Walker III has recorded 97+ rushing yards in four of his last five appearances.
Kenneth Walker III has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four home appearances.
Xavier Worthy has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in 11 of the Chiefs’ last 12 games as favorites following a win.
Heading into Week 2, Kenneth Walker III ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (173) this season.
Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts
Daniel Jones has recorded 23+ completions in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog.
Daniel Jones has recorded 21+ rushing yards in each of his four previous Week 2 road appearances.
Jonathan Taylor has recorded 20+ receiving yards in seven of the Colts’ last eight September games.
Jonathan Taylor has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his five previous road appearances against AFC West opponents.
Daniel Jones has recorded 228+ passing yards in six of his last seven September appearances.
Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Colts’ last four September games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 2, Seth McGowan ranks 2nd in the NFL in kick return yards (164) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Heading into Week 2, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (176.0) this season.
Heading into Week 2, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (115.0) this season.
Heading into Week 2, the Colts rank T1st in the NFL in red zone percentage (100.0%) this season.
Heading into Week 2, the Colts rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (0.0%) this season.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
I’m on the Chiefs in this one. I didn’t like how the Colts looked against Baltimore’s run game, and while facing Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is its own test compared to facing Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker, I still think the Chiefs are in a good position here. That Chiefs defense looked solid, and I think the Colts could be in some trouble in this game. Give me the Chiefs by a TD.
