Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction 1/12/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

3 days ago

Aug 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Johnny Johnson III (88) runs following a catch as Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Easton Gibbs defends during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Houston Texans	Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Records	12-5	10-7
Spread	-3 -102	+3 -118
Moneyline	-155	+130
Total	Over 38.5 (-105)	Under 38.5 (-115)
When	Monday, January 12, 2026
Time	08:15 PM EST
TV	ESPN

In this article, we will formulate a Texans vs Steelers Prediction for this AFC Wild Card game on Monday, January 12th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 10-7 record this season and finished first in the AFC North. They are 9-8 ATS, 10-7 in Over/Under and have a 6-3 home record and a 4-4 away record. The Steelers are coming off a 26-24 home win against the Ravens.

Offensively, the Steelers average 23.4 points per game, ranking 15th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 22.8 points per game, which is 17th. Pittsburgh averages 305.6 total yards per game (202.4 passing and 103.3 rushing), while allowing 357.0 total yards per game (113.1 rushing and 243.9 passing).

Aaron Rodgers leads the Steelers with 3322 passing yards with 65.7% completed passes and 24 touchdowns. Jaylen Warren leads the team in rushing yards with 958, while Kenneth Gainwell has a team-high 73 receptions for 486 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Defensively, Payton Wilson has a team-high 126 total tackles (74 of them solo), while Nick Herbig leads the team in sacks, with 7.5. Kyle Dugger, Jack Sawyer, Brandin Echols and T.J. Watt have two interceptions each.

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 12-5 record this season and finished second in the AFC South. They are 12-5 ATS, 6-11 in Over/Under and have a 7-1 home record and a 5-4 away record. The Texans are coming off a 38-30 home win against the Colts.

Offensively, the Texans average 23.8 points per game, ranking 13th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 17.4 points per game, which is 2nd. Houston averages 327.0 total yards per game (218.1 passing and 108.9 rushing), while allowing 277.2 total yards per game (93.7 rushing and 183.5 passing).

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 3041 passing yards with 64.5% completed passes and 19 touchdowns. Woody Marks leads the team in rushing yards with 703, while Nico Collins has a team-high 71 receptions for 1117 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 103 total tackles (48 of them solo), while Danielle Hunter leads the team in sacks, with 15. Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock, Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. have 4 interceptions each.

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends: Wild Card Round

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

The Steelers have won 23 of their last 24 Monday home games.
The Texans have lost each of their six previous road postseason games.
The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Texans’ last eight games.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road postseason games.
The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last five games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the last four games between the Texans and Steelers.
The Steelers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six Monday home games.

Why the Houston Texans will win

The Texans have won each of their last nine games.
The Steelers have lost each of their last six postseason games.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six postseason games.
The Texans have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games without Nico Collins.
The Texans have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games as road favorites.
The Texans have won the first half in each of their last seven games.
The Texans have won the first quarter in each of their last two games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Steelers’ last five games without Cameron Heyward have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Texans’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

D.K. Metcalf has scored the last touchdown in each of his three previous Wild Card Round appearances.
Jaylen Warren has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Steelers’ last five games as underdogs.
D.K. Metcalf has recorded 59+ receiving yards in each of his four previous postseason appearances.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 210+ passing yards in each of his last 10 postseason appearances.
Jaylen Warren has recorded 52+ rushing yards in six of the Steelers’ last seven games following a win.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last six home appearances against AFC South opponents.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in 15 of his last 17 appearances following a win.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown zero interceptions in seven consecutive games (including playoffs) – longest streak in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

C.J. Stroud has recorded 242+ passing yards in each of his last three appearances with the Texans as road favorites.
Christian Kirk has recorded 26+ receiving yards in eight of his nine previous appearances against AFC North opponents.
Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four previous appearances with the Texans as road favorites.
Christian Kirk has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his nine previous appearances against AFC North opponents.
Joe Mixon has recorded 65+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a road favorite.
Davis Mills has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances as a starter.
Nico Collins has recorded 50+ receiving yards in nine consecutive games (including playoffs) – longest streak in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Matchup/League Facts

Steelers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
Steelers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
The Texans ranked 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) during the reg. season.
The Texans ranked 1st in the NFL in 1st downs against (276) during the reg. season.

Texans vs Steelers Prediction

In this Texans vs Steelers Prediction, the Texans are coming as -3-point road favorites. The Texans had a slightly better overall record this season but both teams had similar home/away splits. Both teams are coming into this matchup in very good form, as the Steelers are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 5 games, while the Texans have won their last nine matches and are 6-3 against the spread. Houston has the second-best defense in the league, while the Steelers’ defense has been much improved lately, allowing just 19 points per game in their last four matches, so I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. Take the under 39.5 points.