Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Prediction 1/18/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

5 hours ago

Oct 13, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) runs with the ball for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Houston Texans	New England Patriots
Team Records	12-5	14-3
Spread	+3 -102	-3 -118
Moneyline	+142	-170
Total	Over 40.5 (-115)	Under 40.5 (-105)
When	Sunday, January 18, 2026
Time	03:00 PM EST
TV	ESPN

In this article, we will formulate a Texans vs Patriots Prediction for this AFC Divisional Playoff game on Sunday, January 18th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

New England Patriots Preview

The New England Patriots have a 15-3 record this season and finished first in the AFC East. They are 11-6 ATS, 5-1-1 in Over/Under and have a 6-3 home record. The Patriots are coming off a 16-3 home win against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Offensively, the Patriots average 28.8 points per game, ranking 2nd in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 18.8 points per game, which is 4th. New England averages 379.4 total yards per game (250.5 passing and 128.9 rushing), while allowing 295.2 total yards per game (101.7 rushing and 193.5 passing).

Drake Maye leads the Patriots with 4394 passing yards with 72% completed passes and 31 touchdowns. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team in rushing yards with 911, while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 85 receptions for 1013 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Defensively, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles (48 of them solo), while K’Lavon Chaisson leads the team in sacks, with 7.5, while Jaylinn Hawkins has 4 interceptions.

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 13-5 record this season and finished second in the AFC South. They are 12-5 ATS, 6-11 in Over/Under and have a 6-4 away record. The Texans are coming off a 30-6 away win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Offensively, the Texans average 23.8 points per game, ranking 13th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 17.4 points per game, which is 2nd. Houston averages 327 total yards per game (218.1 passing and 108.9 rushing), while allowing 277.2 total yards per game (93.7 rushing and 183.5 passing).

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 3041 passing yards with 64.5% completed passes and 19 touchdowns. Woody Marks leads the team in rushing yards with 703, while Nico Collins has a team-high 71 receptions for 1117 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 103 total tackles (48 of them solo), while Danielle Hunter leads the team in sacks, with 15. Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock, Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. each have 4 interceptions each.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Divisional Round

Why the New England Patriots will win

The Patriots have won each of their last eight Divisional Round games.
The Texans have lost each of their last seven road games against AFC East opponents on a winning streak.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have won the first quarter in four of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 13 games following a win.
The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games following a win.

Why the Houston Texans will win

The Texans have won each of their last 10 games.
The Patriots have lost each of their last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs without Derek Stingley Jr..
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites when playing with a rest advantage.
The Texans have won the first half in each of their last eight games.
The Texans have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games.
The Texans have won the first quarter in six of their last seven Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

Seven of the Texans’ last eight road games without Davis Mills have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Patriots’ last eight Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
Five of the last six Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four home games against AFC opponents.
Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as favorites.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 40+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
Drake Maye has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last five games against AFC South opponents.
Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC South opponents.
Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
Drake Maye ranked 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (113.5) during the reg. season.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

C.J. Stroud has recorded 229+ passing yards in six of his last seven appearances with the Texans as underdogs following a win.
Nick Chubb has recorded 16+ rushing yards in each of his 17 previous appearances on the East Coast.
Christian Kirk has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of his 15 previous appearances with his team as an underdog on the East Coast.
Nick Chubb has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 15 appearances on the East Coast.
Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances on the East Coast.
Davis Mills has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances as a starter.
Ka’imi Fairbairn ranked 1st in the NFL in made field goals (44) during the reg. season.

Matchup/League Facts

Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
Patriots – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
Texans – 16 different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
Texans – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.

Texans vs Patriots Prediction

In this Texans vs Patriots Prediction, the Patriots are coming as -3-point home favorites. The Patriots have been the better team this season but both teams have almost identical home/away splits and have been red-hot lately, as the Patriots are 14-1 in their last 15 games and the Texans have won their last 10 games. I don’t see value on either side of this matchup, but both teams are coming off impressive defensive performances in their Wild Card matches, as they held their opponents into just 6 and 3 points and both games went under the total. Both teams are top-4 in the league defensively, allowing just 36.2 points per game combined, so I like the under 41 points in this one.