Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction 12/11/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

David Racey

4 hours ago

Dec 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) runs for a gain during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team Records	4-9	7-6
Spread	+4.5 -115	-4.5 -105
Moneyline	+195	-238
Total	Over 44.5 (-115)	Under 44.5 (-105)
Where	Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
When	Thursday, December 11, 2025
Time	08:15 PM EST
TV	Prime Video

In this article we will formulate a Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction for this NFL game on Thursday, December 11th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 15 matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-9 this season after they lost to Seattle by a score of 37-9 in their last game. Atlanta led 6-3 in the second quarter, but they were tied at six at halftime, before allowing 31 points in the second half for the loss. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 365-274, went 1-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Kirk Cousins went 15-30 for 162 yards and two interceptions, while Bijan Robinson rushed 20 times for 86 yards. Kyle Pitts led the receivers with six receptions for 90 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Atlanta lost to the Jets by a score of 27-24, but did beat the Saints by a score of 24-10 before that. The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight games and they are currently third in the NFC South standings. Atlanta has scored 19.4 points per game with 206.4 passing yards and 123.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.1 points against per game this season. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 845 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Bijan Robinson has rushed 215 times for 1,081 yards and five scores this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-6 this year after they lost to New Orleans by a score of 24-20 in their last game. Tampa Bay led 10-7 at halftime and 17-14 in the third quarter, but they only scored three points the rest of the way for the loss. The Buccaneers out gained NO by a total of 301-260, went 3-13 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Baker Mayfield went 14-30 for 122 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Bucky Irving rushed 15 times for 55 yards. Chris Godwin Jr led the receivers with five receptions for 55 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated Arizona by a score of 20-17, but lost to the Rams by a score of 34-7 before that. The Buccaneers have lost four of their last five games and they are currently tied for first in the NFC South standings. Tampa Bay has scored 23.0 points per game with 199.8 passing yards and 115.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 25.0 points against per game this season. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,722 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Emeka Egbuka has 54 receptions for 806 yards and six scores this year.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

The Buccaneers have won 12 of their last 13 games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
The Falcons have lost each of their last eight December games as underdogs.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road games in December.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a Division loss.
The Buccaneers have won the first quarter in six of their last eight December games at Raymond James Stadium.
The Falcons have lost the first half in five of their last six Thursday games.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games without Antoine Winfield Jr. have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Falcons’ last four games as underdogs against the Buccaneers have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nine of the last 12 games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

Rachaad White has scored a touchdown in three of the Buccaneers’ last four night games against teams that held a losing record.
Rachaad White has recorded 28+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last eight December games at Raymond James Stadium.
Sterling Shepard has recorded 15+ receiving yards in each of his six previous Week 15 home appearances.
Rachaad White has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last 11 December games against NFC opponents.
Emeka Egbuka has 445 receiving yards through his first five career games – most by any player since Puka Nacua, (2023).

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

Kirk Cousins has recorded 21+ completions in seven of his last eight December road appearances against NFC opponents.
Tyler Allgeier has recorded 31+ rushing yards in 10 of the Falcons’ last 12 games following a home loss.
Kirk Cousins has recorded 225+ passing yards in eight of his last nine December appearances with his team as a road underdog against NFC opponents.
Bijan Robinson has scored a touchdown in three of the Falcons’ last four games against the Buccaneers.
Darnell Mooney has recorded 44+ receiving yards in five of his last six road appearances against NFC South opponents.
Tyler Allgeier has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last five games as road underdogs against NFC South opponents.
Heading into Week 15, Bijan Robinson is one of only two players in the NFL to record 500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 15, the Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in red zone percentage against (68.8%) this season.
Heading into Week 15, the Buccaneers rank T4th in the NFL in turnover differential (+9) this season.
Heading into Week 15, the Falcons have suffered the equal-most losses when leading after Q1 this season (6).
Heading into Week 15, the Falcons have played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).

Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup really struggling over their last five games and their high scoring offense has disappeared. The Buccaneers are coming off of a terrible loss to New Orleans, so they really can’t afford to drop this game. Atlanta is a disaster right now and they have lost seven of their last eight games. The Falcons have allowed at least 27 points in four of their last five and Cousins has not looked good at the quarterback spot. I think this is a great spot for Tampa Bay to get back on track and I expect their offense to score at least 30 points here. Take the Bucs to cover.

David Racey is 82-68 (55%) in the NFL this season and is one of the top NFL cappers on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!