Detroit (4-1) vs Kansas City (2-3)
October 12, 2025 at 08:20 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kansas City -1.5 — Over/Under: +50.5
The Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in NFL action from Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a Lions vs Chiefs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Lions vs Chiefs pick. We will examine:
The Detroit Lions recent form and player performance
The Kansas City Chiefs recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Detroit Lions
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Chiefs
Recent betting trends in games played between the Lions and Chiefs
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Lions vs Chiefs game
In Sunday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Lions went into the break with a 14-3 edge, then scored 14 unanswered points in the third quarter along the way to a 37-24 win. QB Jared Goff was 19-of-23 for 258 yards and three scores, while leading rusher David Montgomery carried 18 times for 65 yards and a touchdown of his own. Tops in receiving was Amon-Ra St. Brown with eight catches for 100 yards total during the victory.
Over on the Chiefs’ side, they’ve had a wild season already. Kansas City took a tight loss 27-21 to the Chargers in their opener, then lost another close game versus the Philadelphia Eagles 20-17 in a Super Bowl rematch. After a 22-9 win over the New York Giants, the Chiefs took out the Baltimore Ravens 37-20 in Week 4. During that victory Kansas City posted 382 total yards with 24 first downs and a tepid 5-of-15 on third-down tries but also went a perfect 4-for-4 on fourth-down conversions.
Matched up against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday evening, KC was down 21-14 heading into the fourth quarter. The Chiefs posted a 14-10 comeback effort from there but it wasn’t enough in a 31-28 defeat. QB Patrick Mahomes finished 29-of-41 for 318 yards, one score and a pick while also leading the rush on 60 yards and a score. Tyquan Thornton had three catches for 90 yards and Kareem Hunt rushed seven times for 49 yards and two TDs.
The Chiefs have won 16 of their last 17 home games before a Division game.
The Lions have lost each of their last three Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last nine October games against NFC opponents.
The Lions have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
The Lions have lost the first half in four of their last five games as underdogs following a road win.
The Lions have lost the first quarter in three of their last four road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Lions have won each of their last eight road games following a win.
The Chiefs have lost each of their last two games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six road games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a loss.
The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last two games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games.
Eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games as home favorites following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Lions’ last four road games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
I’ll take the Lions here, but it’ll be an interesting matchup regardless. Detroit is coming off a nice overall effort versus the Bengals—despite going just 2-of-8 on third-down conversions and giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Lions posted 365 yards otherwise, along with 23 first downs and 6.0 yards per play. The defense came up with a trio of interceptions and held Cincinnati to 322 yards (85 rushing) overall with 4-of-11 on third downs. Since scoring just 13 points in the opener loss to Green Bay, Detroit has put up 34 or more points in four straight games.
As for KC, they’re coming off a wild Monday night loss that featured 13 penalties for 109 yards. Jacksonville benefitted from a 99-yard interception return in the third (the longest play in their team’s history) but the fact of the matter is that KC is now 0-3 versus teams with winning records.
The Detroit Lions recent form and player performance
The Kansas City Chiefs recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Detroit Lions
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Chiefs
Recent betting trends in games played between the Lions and Chiefs
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Lions vs Chiefs game
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
The Lions kicked off their season with a matchup versus the rival Green Bay Packers and ended up losing 27-13 on the road. Game two versus the Chicago Bears went much better in a 52-21 win, then Detroit dispatched the Baltimore Ravens in a 38-30 result. A 34-10 win over the Cleveland Browns came next to bring Detroit to 3-1 overall. In that victory the Lions posted a modest 277 yards on offense with 16 first downs but also held Cleveland to just 249 on the other side with 3.8 yards per play, 16 first downs, 3-of-14 on third downs and three takeaways.In Sunday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Lions went into the break with a 14-3 edge, then scored 14 unanswered points in the third quarter along the way to a 37-24 win. QB Jared Goff was 19-of-23 for 258 yards and three scores, while leading rusher David Montgomery carried 18 times for 65 yards and a touchdown of his own. Tops in receiving was Amon-Ra St. Brown with eight catches for 100 yards total during the victory.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
Over on the Chiefs’ side, they’ve had a wild season already. Kansas City took a tight loss 27-21 to the Chargers in their opener, then lost another close game versus the Philadelphia Eagles 20-17 in a Super Bowl rematch. After a 22-9 win over the New York Giants, the Chiefs took out the Baltimore Ravens 37-20 in Week 4. During that victory Kansas City posted 382 total yards with 24 first downs and a tepid 5-of-15 on third-down tries but also went a perfect 4-for-4 on fourth-down conversions.
Matched up against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday evening, KC was down 21-14 heading into the fourth quarter. The Chiefs posted a 14-10 comeback effort from there but it wasn’t enough in a 31-28 defeat. QB Patrick Mahomes finished 29-of-41 for 318 yards, one score and a pick while also leading the rush on 60 yards and a score. Tyquan Thornton had three catches for 90 yards and Kareem Hunt rushed seven times for 49 yards and two TDs.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 6
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
The Chiefs have won 16 of their last 17 home games before a Division game.
The Lions have lost each of their last three Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last nine October games against NFC opponents.
The Lions have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
The Lions have lost the first half in four of their last five games as underdogs following a road win.
The Lions have lost the first quarter in three of their last four road games against teams that held a losing record.
Why the Detroit Lions will win
The Lions have won each of their last eight road games following a win.
The Chiefs have lost each of their last two games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six road games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a loss.
The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last two games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games.
Total Points Facts
Eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games as home favorites following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Lions’ last four road games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
Lions vs Chiefs Prediction
I’ll take the Lions here, but it’ll be an interesting matchup regardless. Detroit is coming off a nice overall effort versus the Bengals—despite going just 2-of-8 on third-down conversions and giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Lions posted 365 yards otherwise, along with 23 first downs and 6.0 yards per play. The defense came up with a trio of interceptions and held Cincinnati to 322 yards (85 rushing) overall with 4-of-11 on third downs. Since scoring just 13 points in the opener loss to Green Bay, Detroit has put up 34 or more points in four straight games.
As for KC, they’re coming off a wild Monday night loss that featured 13 penalties for 109 yards. Jacksonville benefitted from a 99-yard interception return in the third (the longest play in their team’s history) but the fact of the matter is that KC is now 0-3 versus teams with winning records.