Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Prediction 10/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans meet Sunday in NFL action from NRG Stadium in Houston. Here’s a Cowboys vs Texans prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cowboys vs Texans pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

The Cowboys opened up the season with a divisional rivalry game versus the New York Giants. Dallas gave up a touchdown in each quarter along the way to a 28-20 road loss. In game two versus the Washington Commanders, Dallas went into the second half with a 17-10 advantage. The Cowboys finished off with 20 more points from there in a 37-20 victory.

Last weekend versus the Baltimore Ravens, the Cowboys were up 10-7 by the end of the first quarter then went into the break with a 17-13 deficit. Dallas managed 18 more points from there but it wasn’t enough in a loss at home 34-31. QB Dak Prescott was 25-of-40 for 276 yards and one touchdown. Javonte Williams carried 19 times for 98 yards and a TD as the leading rusher.

Houston Texans Betting Preview

Over on the Texans’ side, they opened things up against the Buffalo Bills. Houston held strong most of the way but ended up falling in a tough result 36-31 after getting outscored 12-10 in the second half. In game two versus the Cincinnati Bengals, Houston was down 7-3 by the end of the first half and 17-6 by the end of the third quarter. In the end it was another loss, this time 20-6.

Matched up against the Indianapolis Colts, the Texans were within six points at the break on a 13-7 ballgame. In the fourth quarter Houston outscored Indy 10-6 but couldn’t close the gap in a 19-17 loss. QB CJ Stroud was 16-of-27 for 167 yards and a touchdown. David Montgomery added 11 carries for 33 yards as the leading rusher in the losing effort for the Texans.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Texans have won each of their last 10 games as favorites following a Division game.
• The Cowboys have lost each of their last four Sunday road games.
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games without DaRon Bland.
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last five home games following a Division game.
• The Cowboys have lost the first half in four of their last five games as road underdogs.

Why the Dallas Cowboys will win

• The Texans have lost each of their six previous Week 4 games against NFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have won five of their last six games as road underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without Jadeveon Clowney.
• The Cowboys have covered the spread in five of their last six October games against AFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have won the first half in five of their last six road games in October.
• The Cowboys have won the first quarter in four of their last six games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Texans’ last 10 games without Jadeveon Clowney have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Cowboys’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five home appearances against NFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 285+ passing yards in four of the Texans’ last five October home games.
• David Montgomery has recorded 73+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven regular season home appearances against NFC East opponents.
• David Montgomery has recorded 10+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 regular season home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Nico Collins has scored the first touchdown in four of his last five appearances with the Texans as home favorites against NFC opponents.
• David Montgomery has recorded 53+ rushing yards in each of his five previous appearances against the Cowboys.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 22+ completions in five of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Will Anderson Jr. has recorded the most sacks in a single game this season (2.5 vs Colts, Week 3).

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• Javonte Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Cowboys’ last four games as road underdogs.
• George Pickens has recorded 78+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last five games against AFC opponents.
• George Pickens has recorded 78+ receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last five games against AFC opponents.
• Javonte Williams has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four Sunday road appearances.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 14+ rushing yards in each of the Cowboys’ last four games following a loss.
• Heading into Week 4, George Pickens has the equal-most targets without a receiving touchdown this season (25).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in average points against in second quarters this season (12.7).
• Heading into Week 4, the Texans have lost the second quarter in each of their last three games – equal-longest active streak in the league.
• Heading into Week 4, the Cowboys rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage against (58.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Cowboys rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (66.7) this season.

Cowboys vs Texans Prediction

I’ll stay with Dallas. Sure, the Cowboys have had a couple of tough games this year, but they’ve been competitive in all three. Dallas managed 415 yards with 5.8 yards per play and 27 first downs in their loss to Baltimore last weekend but also went just 5-of-13 on third downs. The Cowboys’ defense gave up 378 yards, 192 rush yards, 23 first downs and had zero takeaways. The 3-of-9 allowed on third downs was nice, though.

As for the Texans, they’re coming off a pretty limp offensive performance versus the Colts, notching just 223 yards with 17 first downs and 4-of-11 on third downs. Houston held Indianapolis to 300 yards and 19 first downs with three takeaways but did give up a fairly inflated 7-of-15 on thirds and 2-of-2 on fourths. There are lots of improvements to make before Dallas comes in.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Dallas Cowboys +2.5