Colts vs Chiefs Prediction 11/23/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Colts vs Chiefs prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 23rd at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 12 matchup.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-2 this season after they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 31-25 in their last game. Indianapolis trailed 14-13 at halftime and 25-22 late in the fourth, but they were able to force overtime and get the win. The Colts out gained Atlanta by a total of 519-290, went 2-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Daniel Jones went 19-26 for 255 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Jonathan Taylor rushed 32 times for 244 yards and three scores. Tyler Warren led the receivers with eight receptions for 99 yards in the win. The Indianapolis defense recorded three sacks and four tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Indianapolis lost to the Steelers by a score of 27-20, but did beat the Titans by a score of 38-14 before that. The Colts have won five of their last six games and they are currently first in the AFC South standings. Indianapolis has scored 32.1 points per game with 251.6 passing yards and 145.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.6 points against per game this season. Daniel Jones has thrown for 2,659 yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns on 189 carries this season. 

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-5 this year after they lost to Denver by a score of 22-19 in their last game. Kansas City was tied at six at the half, but they led 19-16 in the fourth, before allowing two field goals in the last 4:10 for the loss. The Chiefs were out gained by a total of 342-311, went 5-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Patrick Mahomes went 29-45 for 276 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Kareem Hunt rushed 13 times for 59 yards and one score. Travis Kelce led the receivers with nine catches for 91 yards and one touchdown in the loss. The KC defense recorded two sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Kansas City lost to the Bills by a score of 28-21, but did beat the Commanders by a score of 28-7 before that. The Chiefs have lost two games in a row and they are currently third in the AFC West standings. Kansas City has scored 25.4 points per game with 248.9 passing yards and 115.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 18.1 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,625 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Travis Kelce has 50 receptions for 631 yards and four scores this year. 

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won 11 of their last 12 games against AFC West opponents on a losing streak.
• The Chiefs have lost each of their last two games as favorites.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six November games as favorites.
• The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in three of their last four Week 12 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last six games as home favorites following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of the Colts’ last seven games following an overtime win have gone OVER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last six regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 305+ passing yards in five of the Chiefs’ last six regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC South opponents.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 14 November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 35+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Patrick Mahomes ranks 2nd in the league for pass attempts inside the 20 (63) this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in three of the Colts’ last four Sunday games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in six of the Colts’ last eight day games against teams on a losing streak.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 257+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Colts’ last nine day games against teams on a losing streak.
• Michael Pittman Jr. has recorded 58+ receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last four road games against AFC opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with the Colts as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 94+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances with the Colts as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Jonathan Taylor ranks 1st in the NFL in touchdowns (17) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 12, the Chiefs have suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 10 points or less this season (5).
• Heading into Week 12, the Chiefs have suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of three points or less this season (3).
• Heading into Week 12, the Colts rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game (396.9) this season.
• Heading into Week 12, the Colts are the only team in the NFL to rank top 5 in both passing yards and rushing yards per game this season.

Colts vs Chiefs Prediction 

Indianapolis comes into this matchup with an 8-2 record and they are coming off of a bye week, but they will be on the road for this game. The Colts have scored at least 31 points in four of their last five games, but they have also allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five. Kansas City has lost two games in a row to the Broncos and Bills, and their offense had trouble finding the end zone last week against Denver. The Chiefs are 4-1 at home this season, but we saw a very inaccurate Mahomes and a below average defensive effort from them last week. This should be an excellent game to watch, but I have to side with the Colts and the free field goal, as their offense has simply been too good.

David Racey is 66-42 (61%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

David Racey's Pick: Colts +3.5