Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Browns vs Lions Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, September 28th at the Ford Field. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Detroit Lions Preview

The Detroit Lions have a 2-1 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NFC North. They are 2-1 ATS, 2-1 in Over/Under and have a 1-0 home record and 1-1 away record. The Lions are coming off a 38-30 away win against the Baltimore Ravens and are playing the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs next.

Offensively, the Lions average 34.3 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 26.0 points per game, which is 23rd. Detroit averages 394.3 total yards per game, with 149.0 rushing yards and 253.7 passing yards per game. They allow 307.7 total yards per game, with 149.0 rushing and 245.3 passing yards per game.

Jared Goff leads the Lions with 761 passing yards and 77.9% completed passes. David Montgomery leads the team in rushing yards, with 233, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has a team-high 20 caught passes for 237 receiving yards, and has four touchdowns. Defensively, Jack Campbell has a team-high 26 total tackles, 17 of them solo. Aidan Hutchinson leads the Lions in sacks, with 3.5, while Kerby Joseph has one interception.

Cleveland Browns Preview

The Cleveland Browns have a 1-2 record this season and are sitting on the 3rd place of the AFC North. They are 2-1 ATS, 1-2 in Over/Under and have a 0-1 home record and 1-1 away record. The Browns are coming off a 13-10 home win against the Green Bay Packers and are playing the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers next.

Offensively, the Browns average 15.3 points per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 22.7 points per game, which is 18th. Cleveland averages 290.0 total yards per game, with 86.7 rushing yards and 203.3 passing yards per game. They allow 204.3 total yards per game, with 57.3 rushing and 147.0 passing yards per game.

Joe Flacco leads the Browns with 631 passing yards and 61.1% completed passes. Quinshon Judkins leads the team in rushing yards, with 155, while Cedric Tillman has a team-high 21 caught passes for 134 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns. Defensively, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has a team-high 22 total tackles, 11 of them solo. Myles Garrett leads the Browns in sacks, with four, while Grant Delpit has one interception.

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Detroit Lions will win

• The Browns have lost each of their last 16 interstate games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Lions have won each of their last eight games following a road win.
• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Lions have won the first half in each of their last 13 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Lions have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine home games.
• The Lions have won the first quarter in eight of their last nine home games.

Why the Cleveland Browns will win

• The Lions have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AFC North opponents.
• The Browns have won each of their last two September games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Browns have covered the spread in five of their last six games against NFC North opponents.
• The Lions have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as favorites against AFC North opponents.
• The Lions have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Browns have won the first half in five of their last six games against the Lions.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Browns’ last nine road games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Lions’ last five Week 4 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at Ford Field have gone OVER the total points line.

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored the first touchdown in four of the Lions’ last five games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Lions’ last five games following a win.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last seven games as favorites.
• Jared Goff has recorded 283+ passing yards in six of the Lions’ last seven games as favorites.
• Kalif Raymond has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last nine home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 69+ rushing yards in each of the Lions’ last eight games following a road win.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Lions’ last 10 games against AFC opponents.
• Jared Goff has recorded 24+ completions in five of the Lions’ last six home games against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (4) this season.

Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts

• Cedric Tillman has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five Sunday appearances with the Browns as underdogs.
• Joe Flacco has recorded 213+ passing yards in 16 of his last 18 appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Jerry Jeudy has recorded 51+ receiving yards in each of his seven previous September road appearances.
• Jerome Ford has recorded 14+ rushing yards in each of his last seven appearances with the Browns as road underdogs.
• Jerome Ford has recorded 32+ rushing and receiving yards in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Browns as road underdogs.
• Deshaun Watson has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last six September appearances.
• Heading into Week 4, Dylan Sampson ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Lions – three different players have recorded multi-touchdown games this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Lions – two different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Browns rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (204.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Browns rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (57.3) this season.

Browns vs Lions Prediction

In their previous meeting back in 2021, Cleveland won 13-10 at home, but the Lions have won their three meetings before that, including their two meetings in Detroit. Detroit is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings, and over is 3-1 in their 4 meetings.

In this Browns vs Lions Prediction, the Lions are coming as -9-point home favorites, with the total set at 44.5 points. I trust the Lions at home in this matchup, as they are coming off back-to-back wins, where they have covered the spread in both. Cleveland might be coming off a win, but their offense has been terrible this season, with just 15.3 points per game – ranking 30th in the league. Take the Detroit Lions to win and cover the -9 point spread at home in this one.