Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction 11/16/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

4 hours ago

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) rolls out of the pocket before attempting a final deep pass to end the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. The Bengals won, 33-31.

MATCHUP	Bengals Cincinnati	Steelers Pittsburgh
Team Records	3-6	5-4
Spread	+5.5 -115	-5.5 -105
Moneyline	+185	-225
Total	Over 49.5 (-112)	Under 49.5 (-108)
Where	Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When	Sunday, November 16, 2025
Time	01:00 PM EST
TV	CBS

In this article, we will formulate a Bengals vs Steelers Prediction for this NFL Week 11 game on Sunday, November 16th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 5-4 record this season and are sitting first in the AFC North. They are 4-5 ATS, 5-4 in Over/Under and have a 3-2 home record and a 2-2 away record. The Steelers are coming off a 10-25 road loss against the Los Angeles Chargers and will face the Bears, Bills and Ravens next.

Offensively, the Steelers average 23.6 points per game, ranking 16th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24.4 points per game, which is 20th. Pittsburgh averages 252.6 total yards per game (175.0 passing and 77.6 rushing), while allowing 338.4 total yards per game (123.9 rushing and 214.5 passing).

Aaron Rodgers leads the Steelers with 1853 passing yards with 66.8% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. Jaylen Warren leads the team in rushing yards with 347, while D.K. Metcalf has a team-high 50 receptions for 325 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Defensively, Payton Wilson has a team-high 78 total tackles (49 of them solo), while T.J. Watt leads the team in sacks, with 6.0, while Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. each have one interception.

Cincinnati Bengals Preview

The Cincinnati Bengals have a 3-6 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC North. They are 3-6 ATS, 6-2 in Over/Under and have a 2-3 home record and a 1-3 away record. The Bengals are coming off a 42-47 home loss against the Chicago Bears and will face the Browns, Eagles and Patriots next.

Offensively, the Bengals average 24 points per game, ranking 16th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 33.3 points per game, which is 32nd. Cincinnati averages 356.1 total yards per game (262.0 passing and 94.1 rushing), while allowing 396.4 total yards per game (118.6 rushing and 277.9 passing).

Joe Burrow leads the Bengals with 2358 passing yards with 68.2% completed passes and 19 touchdowns. Joe Mixon leads the team in rushing yards with 412, while Ja’Marr Chase has a team-high 67 receptions for 812 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Defensively, Logan Wilson has a team-high 78 total tackles (45 of them solo), while Trey Hendrickson leads the team in sacks, with 7.5, while Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton each have one interception.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

The Bengals have lost each of their last nine Sunday games as underdogs.
The Steelers have won eight of their last nine November home games against AFC opponents.
The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against AFC North opponents.
The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Steelers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The home team has won the first quarter in five of the Steelers’ last six Week 11 games.
The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last six Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium.

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will win

The Bengals have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Steelers.
The Steelers have lost each of their last two games as home favorites following a loss.
The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last six road games following a home loss.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Bengals have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four road games against AFC North opponents.
The Steelers have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
The Bengals have won the first half in each of their last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).

Total Points Facts

Each of the Steelers’ last six home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Bengals’ last five November road games against AFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

Jonnu Smith has recorded 27+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances against division opponents.
Kenneth Gainwell has recorded 16+ rushing yards in each of the Steelers’ last four Sunday games as favorites.
Jonnu Smith has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances against division opponents.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 27+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 11 appearances against division opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 235+ passing yards in 15 of his last 16 appearances against AFC North opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last four appearances against the Bengals.
Derrick Harmon has two sacks through his first five career games – most by any player since Jalen Carter, (2023).

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

Ja’Marr Chase has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bengals’ last eight games against AFC North opponents.
Chase Brown has recorded 71+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bengals’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
Joe Flacco has recorded 262+ passing yards in each of his last four Sunday appearances at Acrisure Stadium.
Tanner Hudson has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last nine November appearances.
Chase Brown has recorded 70+ rushing yards in three of his last four appearances against AFC North opponents.
Joe Flacco has recorded 23+ completions in 12 of his last 13 appearances against AFC North opponents.
Heading into Week 11, Ryan Rehkow ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (52.8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Steelers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.
Steelers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.
Bengals – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.
Bengals – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.

Bengals vs Steelers Prediction

The Bengals were 2-1 in their three meetings against the Steelers last season and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Pittsburgh. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Bengals vs Steelers Prediction, the Steelers are coming as -5.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 49.5 points. Both teams have been struggling lately, as the Steelers are 1-3 in their last 4 games and the Bengals 1-6 in their last 7. The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL and I simply cannot back them up on the road, especially when they are 3-6 against the spread this season. The value here lies with the home team, so take the Pittsburgh Steelers and lay the -5.5 points.