Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 10/11/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Andrew Jett

2 hours ago

Sep 27, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins cheerleaders entertain fans during a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins
Team Records	2-2	0-4
Spread	-6.5 -120	+6.5 100
Moneyline	-325	+260
Total	Over 42.5 (-115)	Under 42.5 (-105)
Where	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
When	Sunday, October 11, 2026
Time	01:00 PM EDT
TV	Fox

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Here’s a Bengals vs Dolphins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bengals vs Dolphins pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

The Bengals opened up the season with a couple of pretty solid wins, building some confidence in the team. Game one was a 33-27 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In game two Cincinnati kept it up with a 20-6 win on the road over the Houston Texans. The Bengals would then fall in game three 30-27 versus the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, though.

Last weekend versus Jacksonville, the Bengals were only able to muster a field goal in the first half and were trailing 13-3. Cincinnati got into the end zone a couple of times after that but it wasn’t enough in a 22-17 home loss. QB Joe Burrow was 39-of-54 for 428 yards, one TD and two picks. Tee Higgins put up 11 catches for 157 yards in the losing effort for the Bengals.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

Over on the Dolphins’ side, they haven’t had a whole lot of luck this year—to say the least. Miami hit the road for a 27-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in the opener then lost 35-13 on the road versus the San Francisco 49ers in game two. In their first home outing of the year, Miami ended up taking a 24-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs for an 0-3 start.

Matched up against the Minnesota Vikings last weekend the Dolphins gave up three field goals in the first half for a 9-0 deficit at the break. Miami was within two points at one spot in the game but couldn’t make the comeback in a 15-10 loss. QB Malik Willis was 9-of-17 for 85 yards and Ollie Gordon led the rush on nine carries for 100 yards and one TD.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

The Bengals have lost each of their last nine road games against AFC East opponents on a losing streak.
The underdogs have won each of the Bengals’ last three games.
The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Bengals’ last five games.
The Dolphins have won the first quarter in each of their last two Week 5 games as underdogs.
The Bengals have lost the first half in six of their last eight Week 5 games as favorites.

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will win

The Dolphins have lost 18 of their last 19 games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Bengals have won 10 of their last 11 games without Drew Sample.
The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as road favorites following a loss.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday games.
The Dolphins have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Dolphins’ last nine home games following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Bengals’ last four October road games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

Ollie Gordon II has scored a touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last two games as underdogs.
Malik Willis has recorded 39+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
Malik Washington has recorded 47+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs.
Malik Willis has recorded 197+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances.
Malik Washington has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs.
Heading into Week 5, Bradley Pinion ranks T4th in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

Chase Brown has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bengals’ last eight games as favorites against teams that held a losing record.
Joe Flacco has recorded 238+ passing yards in six of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite against AFC opponents.
Chase Brown has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of the Bengals’ last eight games following a loss.
Chase Brown has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Bengals’ last four games as favorites against teams that held a losing record.
Chase Brown has recorded 61+ rushing yards in five of the Bengals’ last six road games against AFC opponents.
Samaje Perine has recorded 24+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight regular season appearances against AFC East opponents.
Joe Flacco has recorded 21+ completions in nine of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road favorite.
Heading into Week 5, Joe Burrow has recorded the most completions in a single game this season (39 vs Jaguars, Week 4).

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 5, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (11.5) this season.
Heading into Week 5, the Dolphins have recorded the longest kickoff return this season (79 yards).
Bengals – two different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Heading into Week 5, the Bengals rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (43.3) this season.

Bengals vs Dolphins Prediction

I’ll stay with the Bengals. Cincinnati was able to hang with a good Jacksonville team last weekend, notching 26 first downs and 437 yards of offense. The 11 penalties and two interceptions didn’t help the cause, and it ended up being a pretty sloppy game for both sides (the Jags had 13 penalties for 125 yards). I’d like to see a lower points total allowed here; Cincinnati has given up a combined 52 points in the last two weeks.

As for the Dolphins, they’re coming off a weird one versus the Vikings. That one was loaded with penalties as well; Miami committed nine of the game’s 20 flags. The offense could only muster eight first downs and 198 total yards, with only 77 of those coming through the air. This is a very winnable road game for the Bengals.